It’s always prudent to rein in the optimism when it comes to the Bears. Four decades of high expectations crashing down ought to be enough to learn that lesson.
It’s never popular to deliver that message, of course, and now seems like especially bad timing. The team is fresh off its first playoff win in 15 years, quarterback Caleb Williams’ stardom is surging and coach Ben Johnson has a wealth of credibility in the bank.
But what about that defense?
It’s the vulnerability that few outside Halas Hall seem willing to acknowledge after a misleading performance last season. The Bears led the NFL with 33 takeaways, which was the only way they possibly could’ve masked that they were downright bad otherwise.
That’s not masked inside the building, though.
The checklist of what a good defense must do begins with stopping the run and rushing the passer. The Bears allowed the sixth-most yards rushing last season at 134.5 per game and had the seventh-fewest sacks at 35 despite defensive end Montez Sweat putting up 10 in what Johnson called the best season of his career.
“Outside of takeaways, we finished bottom-10, bottom-five in a lot of categories, so we ain’t done a damn thing,” star cornerback Jaylon Johnson said. “There’s a lot for us to prove on defense.”
There sure is. And it could be tougher for defensive coordinator Dennis Allen this season after some good talent went out the door as the Bears tried to thread the needle of trying to upgrade while also shedding some salary-cap dollars to get under the cap.
Those moves put the Bears in a familiar position: Asking everyone to trust them.
Starting safeties Kevin Byard, an All-Pro, and Jaquan Brisker were replaced by Coby Bryant and first-round pick Dillon Thieneman. Bryant was a good signing, but he had a significant knee injury this week and likely is out until October, and Thieneman, like any rookie, is an unknown until he shows something during the season.
The Bears also continue to have concerns about Kyler Gordon (injuries) and Tyrique Stevenson (attentiveness) at corner, where Johnson is the only sure thing as long as he’s healthy. Johnson and Gordon missed most of last season.
At linebacker, the Bears return T.J. Edwards, who turns 30 next week, to play with Devin Bush, who is lightning fast compared to Tremaine Edmunds, but is on his fourth team in five seasons.
The biggest problem, however, is the same one that has hurt the Bears throughout the Ryan Poles era: It’s almost impossible to thrive defensively without a pass rush, and their defensive line is Sweat and a lot of uncertainty.
Dayo Odeyingbo had one sack in eight games last season and is coming off a torn Achilles, Austin Booker is unproven and Shemar Turner is still recovering from a torn ACL. Grady Jarrett was banged up most of last season and now he’s 33. Gervon Dexter, a former second-round pick, has been good when the Bears needed him to be great.
Sweat appeared to pull a muscle in practice Thursday, further depleting the Bears at a crucial spot.
And even if the Bears had some hope of duplicating the unlikely formula that worked for them last season, 23 of those takeaways were by players no longer with the team. There’s no guarantee someone else can step up and replace that.
There are questions at all three levels of the defense, and the Bears have no option at this point but to find answers within.
If they don’t, it likely will undercut whatever progress Williams makes.
“The offense is rolling, but we [can’t] rely on, ‘OK, the offense go put up 40 and we’ll hold [the opponent] to 35,’” Jaylon Johnson said. “That’s unacceptable.”
He then ran through many of the aforementioned concerns, seeming to say they’re valid, and said, “We’ve still got a lot to do and a lot to prove. Go down the list… We’ve got a lot of people that are motivated and we’ve got to go out there and play.”
The Bears were 29th in total defense last season and were one of only two teams in the bottom 12 to have a winning record. They won games in which they allowed 42, 28 and 27 points — all three requiring a late comeback.
Playing that way ties Ben Johnson’s hands as the offensive play caller, too, because it’s hard for a team to run its way back into a game. The ripple effect will be Williams spending much of the game dropping back against a defense that knows the Bears have no choice but to pass.
When the Bears or analysts bring up the overall discouraging defensive numbers from last season, they aren’t dismissing the takeaways. They’re simply saying that’s a volatile part of the game and no defense should assume them as part of its plan.