The Toronto Raptors are hoping to keep the good times flowing against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Game 5 will take place tonight, April 29th, 2026, starting at 7:30 PM Eastern Time.
The NBA playoffs have been filled with a mixed bag of surprises and predictable outcomes. The Oklahoma City Thunder swept the Phoenix Suns, while the San Antonio Spurs dispatched the Portland Trailblazers in five games.
After four games, the series is a wash at 2-2. With the series now becoming a best-of-three, Game 5 will be the most important game this team has played all season.
Here are some Game 5 stats, the Raptors’ record in these situations, along with some predictions for the game.
Win Game 5, Win the Series
An interesting statistic regarding Game 5 of the NBA playoffs has come to light. Specifically, how often teams that win Game 5 go on to win the series. This post specifically looks at series that are locked at two apiece, like the current Raptors-Cavs series.
“In the NBA, teams that have won Game 5 in a series tied 2-2 have gone on to win the series 82.8% of the time,” Esfandiar Baraheni of The Athletic wrote on X.
There could be a variety of reasons why this happens. For one, all the pressure in the world is now on the team facing elimination. This kind of pressure can knock a team off its game and make it less effective.
On the flip side, it can also unlock the team’s killer instinct, which is one win away from eliminating them. This can either heighten the series with the team that is down coming back and tying things up. Or, the team that is up follows through and sends their opponent to an early offseason.
The Raptors Game 5 Record
According to Baraheni, they have been in this situation before. Notably, when they are in this situation, they win more often than they lose.
“The Raptors have been in this situation 10 times in franchise history,” Baraheni writes. “They’re 7-3. Of the 7 times they won game 5, they only went on to lose the series once: 2014 vs Brooklyn. The 3 times they lost game 5: 2020 vs Celtics, 2016 vs Cavs, 2001 vs Sixers.”
This bodes very well for the Raptors. However, it’s a must-win game for both teams, so the Raptors will need to be sharp. One thing they have done extraordinarily well in Games 3 and 4 is limiting points off turnovers. They will need to continue doing that, in addition to picking up points in the paint, which has been their bread and butter all series.
Game 5 Predictions: Raptors vs Cavs
Heavy Prediction: Raptors continue their winning ways. Scottie Barnes puts up 20+ points again, while Collin Murray-Boyles records another double-double.
Sports Illustrated believes the Cavs will be up in today’s game because they have home-court advantage.
“The Cavs have seen their NBA Finals odds dip from +1400 to +1800 after their Game 4 loss, but oddsmakers have them heavily favored at home in Game 5,” the outlet writes. “Cleveland won Game 1 by 13 points and Game 2 by 10 points, so it should have confidence at Rocket Arena on Wednesday.”
Additionally, Fadeaway World believes that Donovan Mitchell and James Harden will be the secrets to the success they predict the Cavs will have tonight.
“The Cavaliers still have the cleaner high-end shot creation,” the outlet explains. “Mitchell and Harden have not played well enough in the last two games, but they already showed in Games 1 and 2 that they can control this matchup when the pick-and-roll is working. Mitchell scored 32 in Game 1 and 30 in Game 2. Harden had 22 points and 10 assists in Game 1, then 28 points in Game 2.”
“The Cavaliers won both because their guards got downhill and forced the Raptors into rotations.”
However, momentum is not so easy to sway in the Cavs’ favor. Especially, because of the vastly improved effort from the Raptors at the prompting of their impassioned coach, Darko Rajakovic.
No matter how you slice it, this game is tabbed as an entertaining clash.
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