The Los Angeles Lakers have received a polarizing reaction to the blockbuster trade for Walker Kessler, but more negative variables are starting to pile up on that side. A bold trade saw the Lakers giving up two future first round draft picks and committing over $30 million per year to Kessler as the team’s new starting center. The move was partially done to appease new franchise superstar Luka Doncic after his request for the team to improve at the center position.
Casino did a study that rated the trade as the worst overall of the entire NBA offseason. Each of the following projections show the Lakers getting worse with Kessler:
“1. Kessler’s arrival is projected to cost the Lakers the equivalent of 4.0 points of scoring per game.
2. Los Angeles is forecast to concede 0.8 fewer points per game, but the drop in scoring would still leave the team 3.2 points per game worse off overall.
3. Compared with retaining the outgoing players, the model equates that decline to 2.9 fewer wins over the first 30 games.”
All these projections imply that the Lakers will be a far worse team next season after losing LeBron James and a handful of other starters. However, the overall addition of Kessler being considered a negative by these analytics shows that there is huge risk involved.
Deeper Dive On Walker Kessler Hurting Lakers
Each projection in question showed a different way they believe the Lakers will decline next season. The first one makes sense that the Lakers will average 4 fewer points per game with the new roster compared to last season’s team while accounting for more NBA variables.
General manager Rob Pelinka likely expects this since he went all in on a player known more for defense. Kessler is a limited offensive player, but his ability to defend the paint is a huge boost for the current Lakers team led by lackluster defenders Doncic and Austin Reaves.
The most worrisome projection here is that the Lakers are expected to lose three more games over their first 30 games. Overall forecasting means that they should be at least six games worse next season. Teams like the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder are forecasted steamroll over the Lakers even easier after the changes.
How The Lakers Can Prove This Wrong
The only way for the Lakers to truly answer these doubts and prove this study wrong is to win more games and content next season. Unfortunately, reports are already circulating that the Lakers view this team more as a long-term project and are accepting the potential of failure next year.
Kessler must be the biggest difference maker to lead the defense and take strides forward offensively playing with better talent than his Utah Jazz days. The new free agent acquisitions must also replicate what the departed talents, like Marcus Smart and Rui Hachimura, did for the team last season.
Collin Sexton and Quentin Grimes will have a lot of pressure on them to step up and become pivotal role players for the new look Lakers. Head coach JJ Redick must also coach effectively to get the best out of the new roster or these projections could become reality.
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