Tampa Bay Buccaneers third-year running back Bucky Irving lol went from eight touchdowns in his rookie season to four touchdowns in his second year. However, Mike Clay of ESPN thinks it will be as simple as staying healthy for him to get back to eight touchdowns again in 2026.
Clay notes that Kenneth Gainwell might impact his total, but Irving was strong enough inside the 10-yard line as a rookie that he should continue to get work.
“A healthy Irving remains Tampa Bay’s lead back and that should lead to a moderate scoring boost, but his ceiling is limited a bit with Tucker back and Kenny Gainwell (eight TDs in Pittsburgh last season) brought in to replace White,” wrote Clay.
Despite losing some goal-line work last season, Clay feels that he should edge out Gainwell. However, Gainwell is coming into the season with a strong track record near the goal line.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Running Back Bucky Irving Projection for Significant Increase in Touchdowns
GettyTampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving.
Clay notes that Irving went from 12 carries inside the five-yard line to zero last year. He also went from 22 attempts inside the 10-yard line to just six last year.
Sean Tucker had 14 touches inside the 10 and nine inside the five. Rachaad White added nine rushes inside the ten and eight inside the five.
With 23 touches inside the ten and 17 inside the five, there are plenty of touches available to Irving if he wants to earn them. White is not going to be on the Bucs, and Tucker would be a third back if the other two step up.
The big question is whether Irving can earn those extra touches over Gainwell.
Kenneth Gainwell Might Hurt Irving’s Touchdown Ceiling
Gainwell had 16 rushes inside the ten-yard line last year, and that led to five touchdowns for the Pittsburgh Steelers. For his career, Gainwell has 54 carries and 14 touchdowns from inside the 10-yard line. Irving has six touchdowns on 28 carries in his career.
So, Gainwell not only has more carries inside the ten over his career, but his touchdown per rush rate is also better than Irving’s. The initial thought is that this projection might be high for Clay.
It is fair that Irving will be healthier in 2026. However, even when Irving was healthy, he went from 1.29 carries per game inside the ten to 0.6. So, his rate when healthy dropped in half.
It is fair that White is gone, but the Bucs already wanted someone else to take the carries in the red zone when Irving was healthy. So, the argument could be just as strong that Gainwell is the fantasy football running back to buy this year.
He is going to get the touches that are significant. More than being a potential goal-line vulture for Irving, he also will be highly involved in the passing game.
Last year, Gainwell had a career-high 73 receptions. Irving looked good as a receiver in his first NFL season, but has 77 career receptions in two NFL seasons.
To be fair to Irving, he has the better yards per reception rate than Gainwell. However, Gainwell is a strong pass-protecting option, which will get him on the field for the important snaps that result in receptions.
So, Irving should finish with more than four touchdowns, but might not be a lock to reproduce his rookie season.
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