There are few words, if any, that Bears general manager Ryan Poles has used to describe his approach to building a roster more than “sustainable.”
When he inherited a team in shambles in 2022 and burned it down to reset the draft capital and salary-cap situation, he paid that price in the hopes that it eventually would lead to lasting success, not another one-year blip like the Bears have had before.
Poles is at that crossroads now, coming off the Bears’ first good season under his watch at 11-6 with a playoff win. Was that it, just like in 2018, 2010 and other seasons? Or was it truly the start of something big?
That ultimately hinges on quarterback Caleb Williams’ progress more than any other factor, but nailing draft picks is another huge part of the equation. Not only does that replenish talent, but it does so cheaply because contracts are pre-slotted by the collective bargaining agreement. It’s essential as Poles heads toward potentially shelling out for a massive, math-altering quarterback contract extension.
The Bears have three highly valuable picks when the draft begins Thursday and should expect to land immediate starters with the No. 25 overall pick and second-rounders Friday at Nos. 57 and 60 overall.
They also hold a third-round pick Friday (No. 89 overall) and a fourth (No. 129) and two sevenths (Nos. 239 and 241) on Saturday. Those selections are more of a fishing expedition, but are an even greater financial jackpot if they hit.
The draft is how recent great teams like the Patriots, Chiefs and Eagles maintained success after big quarterback contracts started squeezing out expensive veterans. The quarterback rookie-contract window is the premium opportunity in the NFL, and the Bears are still in that with Williams on a deal that pays an average of $9.9 million per season, but he has only two more seasons at that price.
The Bears can manage an eventual spike in his salary by keeping costs down elsewhere.
Take tight end Colston Loveland, for example. He was the No. 10 pick last year, which put him in line to make $26.6 million over four years. If he develops into a top-five tight end this season at $6.7 million per season, that’s a big savings for the Bears when 11 players at that position currently are on deals averaging at least $12 million.
The effect is more pronounced at more expensive positions.
Williams is 21st among quarterbacks in average pay, and 2023 first-round pick Darnell Wright, a second-team All-Pro last season, is 46th among offensive tackles. In a salary-capped sport, those discounts are the secret ingredient to making a multi-year run.
That will be in the minds of Poles, assistant general manager Jeff King and coach Ben Johnson this week, especially when examining the Bears’ needs at left tackle and defensive end.
Choosing the right player at those positions would not only solve a roster issue, but could carry a savings of $20 million or more each through 2029.
The No. 25 pick in the draft this year is set to get a four-year deal worth around $18.8 million over four seasons. If that player turns out to be a star as a rookie, his average pay of $4.7 million would be $18.8 less per season than the 10th-best offensive tackle, 23.5 million less than the 10th-best pass rusher or 18.3 million less than the 10th-best defensive tackle.
In the second round, the No. 57 pick will get a contract at roughly $2.1 million per season and No. 60 will make about $2 million annually on four-year deals. Perhaps it should’ve been more obvious when the Bears drafted wide receiver Luther Burden (making $2.7 million per season) in the second round last year that veteran DJ Moore ($24.9 million last season) was on his way out.
The Bears’ picks in the third round and later are slotted to make between $1.1 and $1.7 million per season, so finding any starter-caliber player in that range makes a major difference.
Few teams have navigated this better recently than the Lions, where Johnson was an assistant coach from 2019 through ’24 amid their rebuild.
By trading for a veteran quarterback in Jared Goff rather than drafting one, they didn’t get the benefit of the rookie quarterback contract window, but offset that by getting their draft picks right all over the rest of their depth chart.
They’ve had stars like wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, offensive tackle Penei Sewell, running back Jahmyr Gibbs and linebacker Jack Campbell and playing for pennies on the dollar compared to similar talents around the league. That enabled them to assemble a contending team while paying Goff $53 million per year.
The Bears’ path to getting out in front of giving Williams a big contract extension — he’s eligible a year from now, and Poles said the team is planning for it if he checks certain boxes this season — is to preemptively save money via the draft. The picks they make this week will matter on the field and in the ledger.