2026 Preseason AP Poll| Too High and Too Low

The initial AP Poll was released at noon and predictably, Ohio State was chosen No. 1 by the media voters.

No matter what you think of rankings, let alone preseason rankings, they will continue and fans will continue to react. Or overreact.

The SEC led the way in the top 25 with nine teams with Georgia at No. 3 and Texas at No. 5 leading the way. But, the Big Ten had the top two schools with Ohio State, who received 40 first place votes at No. 1 followed by the Oregon Ducks at No. 2. Notre Dam came in No. 4. Squeezed between Georgia and Texas. Defending national champions Indiana started off the rest of the top 10 at No.6 while Oklahoma finished the group at No. 10. The only differences between the initial AP Poll released today and the USA Today/Coaches poll released on August 4, are Notre Dame being No. 4 and Texas No. 5 and Ole Miss being No. 9 and Oklahoma at No. 10. These teams were reversed in the Coaches poll.

The remainder of the top 25 teams all came from the Power Four conferences. The same as in the USA Today/Coaches Poll. This continues to show the talent drain being suffered by the rest of the schools as the major conferences grow wealthier while the rest of the schools fall back further from contention.

Before turning to which schools are too high and too low, here are the rest of the top 25 schools in the AP rankings:

11. LSU
12. Texas Tech
13. Alabama
14. BYU
15. USC
16. Michigan
17. Washington
18. Penn State

19.SMU

20. Tennessee
21. Utah
22. Iowa
23. Houston
24. Louisville
25. Missouri

Looking at the list, several schools look to be too highly ranked. But the key is, if you remove a team, who are you willing to replace them with?

For each team which is too high, they will be replaced by a different school who is too low based on the voters.

15. USC Replaced by 19. SMU|

If Lincoln Riley wants to save his reputation, USC needs the top 15 season being shown in the polls A three game stretch early in the season against Oregon, Washington and Penn state will be their first test. But not their last. USC will also have games later in the season against both Ohio State and Indiana. Meaning the Trojans will play five of the top six teams in the Big Ten this season. It is also yet to be defined what Wisconsin and UCLA can be. Both teams also appear on the USC schedule.

This is why the Trojans need to be replaced by SMU and head coach Rhett Lashley.

Lashley, who has more money at SMU then he knows what to do with will come into the season with QB Ken Jennings. Jennings, who is not the namesake of the Jeopardy champion, can be a top QB in the country. The Mustang’s schedule is also easier than the Trojans.

While SMU will face No. 4 Notre Dame and No. 24 Louisville, this is not the challenge of the Big Ten games faced by USC. If both schools are close in talent, as expected by their ranks of No. 15 and No. 19, the USC Trojans will have a better chance to lose a minimum of two more games. This makes the likelihood of USC being ranked higher than SMU slim to none. SMU looks to be the team heading towards a 10-2 record. With USC heading to 8-4.

17. Washington Replaced by 22. Iowa|

Washington and coach Jeb Fish are talented. Bringing back QB Demond Williams was important. It is not the difference in the Huskies being a top three team in the Big Ten or a bottom three team though. Washington will finish somewhere in the middle and with a challenging schedule, including a game against the team they are being replaced with, the talent is not there to think they can remain a top 20 team all season.

Washington will have games against USC, Oregon, Indiana, and Penn State. On top of their game against Iowa. The Huskies also have a game against mystery team Nebraska as Matt Rhule looks to get the Cornhuskers moving in the right direction as a program.

Washinton is three years removed from the National Championship Game against Michigan. This is a different era though and Washington is not up to the same level they were during the 2023 season. With the talent at the top of the Big Ten, Washington can be better than their 9-3 team of 2025 and still finish with a worse record. Which is why the Huskies need to be moved down to be replaced by Kirk Ferentz and the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Iowa will have the mentioned game against Washington. A game which is to be played in Huskies Stadium in Seattle. But they will also have an easier time in their annual Cy-Hawk series game against an Iowa State team who lost everything off their roster. Much of the team went with Matt Campbell to Penn State. While many others graduated or left for other opportunities. This will be a significant difference heading into Big Ten play for Iowa.

Iowa found an offense in 2025 with offensive coordinator Tim Lester. Lester is back and the Hawkeyes will look to use their new offense in conjunction with their stifling defense to drive teams crazy. Especially those games played at home.

Iowa has a difficult stretch with three straight games at Michigan, vs. Ohio State and at Washington. But they also face games against a team in Wisconsin who we do not yet know about, Purdue, and Northwestern.

There is a difficult section of this schedule. But, overall, Iowa has a schedule which leads to a record of 9-3 and potentially 10-2 if Michigan is not what some expect.

Iowa is the type of team who can travel with their defense. This means a good chance to win their game at Washington. Giving them the edge in the ranking’s tiebreaker.

Looking at two teams at the same conference with similar resumes is difficult. But, by the end of the season, the differences in them will be clear and Iowa will be ranked higher.

25. Missouri Replaced by Boise State|

It is just the No. 25 spot in the rankings. But, in terms of perception, it matters greatly.

If neither one of the major polls have a group of Six team in their initial ranks, it will be challenging for voters and committee members to see their value when it comes down to the end of the season and who gets into the playoffs.

Boise State, who took Oregon to the brink last season and has the Ducks again in 2026, is the team which should represent the schools to start the season.

While Boise State may not have stayed power without an undefeated run following the Oregon game, the Broncos have earned the recognition. If not Boise State, the other team you can make an argument for is the Dan Mullen led UNLV Rebels in the new Mountain West Conference. For the Rebels to have a chance, they will have to be undefeated as the schedule in the Mountain West will lead a lot to the imagination.

On the Missouri’s side of the ball, the Tigers have done nothing to deserve the selection in the top 25.

Not only did they lose starting QB Beau Pribula to Virginia, the terrible loss and unknown return of Ahmad Hardy at RB also leaves a void on offense which is difficult to determine at this time.

Including Hardy when he returns, the Tigers bring back only five starters while counting on 26 transfers and 23 signees to fill out their roster. This will be enough to beat teams like Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Troy. It will be a different challenge against their SEC schedule which includes Florida, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss in three straight weeks. A schedule which also includes showdowns with Georgia, Texas and Oklahoma after their first three difficult games.

Missouri, currently ranked No. 25, is in danger of missing a bowl game entirely with such a difficult schedule in the SEC. This is not the No. 25 team in the country and their inclusion in the ranks is confusing to say the least.

 

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