Kawhi Leonard’s second run with the Toronto Raptors is on hold.
At one point, Leonard’s chance to move back to Toronto was as high as 98.1% before the deal stopped its progress.
As of Saturday evening, July 11 at 10:25 p.m. Eastern time, a Kalshi market gave the Raptors an 82% chance of becoming Leonard’s next team. Staying with the Los Angeles Clippers or retiring sat at 17%, with more than $667,000 traded.
Polymarket was even more bullish on the reunion. Toronto stood at 87%, compared with 11% for the Clippers and 3% for the San Antonio Spurs, on more than $153,000 in volume.
The prices have held despite an NBA investigation delaying a trade the teams already agreed to complete.
Markets Treat Raptors Deal as Almost There
The confidence in the trade finalizing begins with more than memories of 2019.
ESPN reported on June 30 that the Clippers agreed to send Leonard to Toronto for Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, unprotected first-round picks in 2031 and 2033, a 2027 first-round pick swap and two second-round picks.
Leonard also gave the market a strong reason to believe Toronto would finish the deal.
As the Clippers spoke with several teams, Leonard made clear that he would sign an extension only with the Raptors, according to the previously noted ESPN report. Minnesota and Detroit did not advance their pursuits without that long-term commitment.
Leonard has one season and $50.3 million remaining on his contract. He would become eligible for a two-year extension worth up to $123.7 million after the trade becomes official. ESPN also reported that he hired Harrison Gaines as his new agent to oversee negotiations with Toronto.
Despite Toronto paying a substantial price for a 35-year-old with a long injury history, the appeal for Toronto is fairly obvious.
Leonard averaged a career-high 27.9 points with 6.4 rebounds over 65 games last season, finishing seventh in MVP voting. He would return to the organization he led to its only championship and won his second NBA Finals MVP award with in 2019.
This kind of postseason scorer and defender does not reache the market often.
NBA Probe Is Last Obstacle to Kawhi Reunion
The agreement stopped short of becoming official because Toronto decided the risk surrounding Leonard’s contract required patience.
The Raptors placed the trade on hold after the NBA informed them that they would assume the risk of any result from the league’s investigation that affects Leonard.
The probe centers on allegations that a $28 million endorsement agreement between Leonard and the now-bankrupt company Aspiration was used to circumvent salary-cap rules. Aspiration had close financial ties to Clippers owner Steve Ballmer. The Clippers and Leonard have denied wrongdoing.
Toronto’s public response offered little indication that its interest had cooled.
“The Raptors remain eager to bring Kawhi back to Toronto and look forward to a swift resolution for our players, our organization and our fans,” the team said in its statement.
Sportsnet reported that the league was willing to approve the trade but wanted Toronto to understand that it could inherit consequences affecting Leonard. The outlet described the most likely outcome as the transaction eventually proceeding under the already reported terms.
Therefore, the trade is not based on whether Leonard and Toronto want another run together. His extension preference and the Raptors’ statement have solidified both sides’ intentions.
The vital factor is the investigation, and how significant it turns out to be.
At 82% on Kalshi and 87% on Polymarket, the money continues to treat the pause as temporary.
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