SAN FRANCISCO — The Warriors know the Kings well. The Kings know the Warriors well. And wouldn’t you know it: They both know it.
But for as much familiarity as the two Northern California teams have with one another, both look different as they brace for a do-or-die play-in battle in the Golden 1 Center (7 p.m., TNT). The regional rivals met four times in the regular season — three of which were decided by one point — but much of the film reels from those tilts can be thrown in the compost pile.
The Kings who Steph Curry sent packing with his legendary 50-point Game 7 last year are different. So is the Warriors team that choked away a 24-point lead to Sacramento in the in-season tournament.
Since they last played, the Warriors have a new rotation built around starting rookie Trayce Jackson-Davis alongside Draymond Green. The Kings have lost two of their top seven players — Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter — to injuries, which has drastically changed their identity and cut their rotation down to eight.
One of the two squads will leave their fifth meeting of the year with no more games to play. When Golden State eliminated the Kings last year at the Golden 1 Center, Steve Kerr found Mike Brown for an emotional handshake.
“When you get to these elimination games and you compete against people you’re really close with, there’s a sense of elation when you win, but you know your good friend is struggling,” Kerr said. “And it hurts. Those moments are always really difficult when you coach against a great friend.”
Here are some strategic stress points that could decide which coach is on the elated end of the postgame handshake on Tuesday night.
Can Curry break the paint?
With Domantas Sabonis, the Kings have to build their defense around a center who struggles with protecting the rim. They’ve done so successfully; Sacramento ranks in the middle of the pack in both points allowed in the paint and field goal percentage within six feet.
Especially with players like Curry, they’re aggressive with double-teams and blitzes on ball screens. With aggressive on-ball defenders like Davion Mitchell and Keon Ellis, they try to create chaos on the perimeter and rotate on the back end.
The key for Curry will be to get downhill, where he’d have opportunities to finish through Sabonis at the cup. That’s easier said than done.
“We know they’ll be all over Steph (Curry),” Kerr said. “We’ve got to be ready for everything. They’ve blitzed Steph in the past, they’ll him him in the halfcourt with a double team. We’ve got to have our spacing right and make sure we’re executing.”
Take this play from the in-season tournament game for example. Ellis picks up Curry as he crosses halfcourt, forcing the ball screen to occur well beyond the 3-point line. Even as he’s 30 feet from the basket, Sabonis hedges hard off Gary Payton II’s pick to show Curry a second defender.
Kevin Huerter tagged Payton in the short roll, and Sacramento’s trap cut off Curry’s passing lane to Klay Thompson on the far wing. Curry may have felt rushed by the ticking game clock, and ended up losing his handle.
Curry’s decision-making in the high pick-and-roll will be key. He had two days off in the final week, so there’s no doubt he’ll be rested. He’s seen every pick-and-roll coverage in the book, so nothing will surprise him. But making the right read, be it splitting the double team, swinging across to the outlet man or hitting the short roller, will keep the Warriors’ turnovers down, create scoring chances in the paint or allow them to play 4-on-3 in the second action.
In Curry’s 50-point Game 7, he did the bulk of his damage inside the arc. Isolations, particularly against Keegan Murray, produced clean looks. That formula should be available to him again in Sacramento.
It’ll be tougher, though, with Monk and Huerter replaced by stronger defenders. Curry and Chris Paul must take care of the ball. They’ve both had occasional issues simply bringing the ball up against full-court pressure this year, and Sacramento has capable pressers in Ellis and Mitchell.
Slowing Sabonis: To help or not to help
The Warriors have historically had Sabonis’ number, as they invite him to take midrange jumpers and affect him at the rim with Green and Kevon Looney.
How Golden State toggles its matchups against Sabonis will be interesting this time around, though, as Jackson-Davis is in the mix for the first time.
The rookie center hasn’t logged meaningful playing time against Sacramento since the first preseason game of the year, which hardly counts.
The Warriors could start Green on Sabonis, which would keep the all-world defender in all actions — handoffs, picks, cross-screens — involving the double-double machine. Or they could give Jackson-Davis the first crack at Sabonis, allowing Green to play free safety on the back line, which has been a common trend in the final stretch of the Warriors’ season.
Green loves having the green light to roam and wreak havoc as a help defender. But the Kings, by design, make that style tricky.
Even without Monk and Huerter’s shooting, the Kings surround Fox and Sabonis with floor-spacers. Ellis has shot 45.7% from 3 since March. Mitchell has shot 41.6% from deep since the All-Star break. Murray broke Sacramento’s franchise record with 12 triples in a game this year and Harrison Barnes lit up the Warriors in late January with 39 points.
Those are the shooters who will be sprayed along the arc around Fox and Sabonis. Crashing down on Sabonis in the post or helping on Fox drives will mean open shots for them.
Sabonis — who registered 77 double-doubles this year, a mark not reached since Moses Malone in 1978-79 — rightfully draws a lot of attention. The Warriors may have to trust Green, Jackson-Davis, or Looney to hold up on an island, or risk a 3-point avalanche.
Defending the DHO without Gary Payton II
The split-action is to the Warriors what the dribble handoff is to Sacramento. When Green described the Kings as a “pattern team,” this action is probably what he had in mind.
Kevin Huerter was a big part of Sacramento’s dribble handoff game, so his absence might decrease the Kings’ ability to go to it, but they also like to run it with Sabonis and Fox.
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Payton II is the Warriors’ best on-ball defender against opposing point guards, which will put more emphasis on Jonathan Kuminga and Andrew Wiggins to stay in front of Fox. On handoffs, they’ll need to stay attached to Fox to prevent clean exchanges and runways to the rim.
If Fox’s defender goes under on the handoff, that gives Fox a lane to the rim. If the defender gets caught on the brush screen during the exchange, that could put a switch defender in a tricky situation trying to stay in front of the shifty Fox.
“I think we’re going to have to rely on Wiggs, rely on JK, use their athleticism, their speed, their length against Fox,” Jackson-Davis said.
The Warriors consider Fox the head of Sacramento’s snake. Cutting him off will be crucial. He’s most dangerous in transition, but one way to slow him down in the halfcourt will be to stay disciplined on the handoff actions he executes with Sabonis.