Ballots went out in the mail to 22.3 million registered California voters the first week of February, but with just days to go before the March 5 primary, only about one in 10 have been filled out and turned in statewide.
How dismal is that? Possibly record-low dismal.
There’s not yet been enough voting by mail history in California to say what that might signal for overall primary turnout. But the figures lag behind what was seen at about the same period leading up to the 2022 primary, which unlike this year’s did not include the higher draw of a presidential race. Overall turnout in the 2022 primary, California’s first entirely by mail, was just 33%, barely above the 31% all-time low in 2012.
Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., which analyzes voting data for progressive campaigns, said Monday that returned ballots two weekends before Election Day were 12% lower this year than the same period in 2022.
“Expect turnout at about a third of the electorate or fewer,” Mitchell said. “We could see a spike in turnout for some reason in the coming days, but it is hard to see what may cause that.”
The low percentage of returned ballots must be taken in context — with every voter being mailed a ballot now, more people are voting overall even if the percentage returned isn’t larger. Turnout was higher at 38% for the June 2018 primary but the 7.1 million people who voted then were fewer than the 7.3 million who voted in the June 2022 primary when turnout was 33%.
But pollster Mark Baldassare, statewide survey director of the Public Policy Institute of California, said it’s unclear that mailing every registered voter a ballot will continue to boost participation, especially in a presidential primary with “not a lot of drama” where the Democratic and Republican nominees already seem a lock.
“We’ve made it very easy for voters to vote, but also easy for them not to vote,” Baldassare said. “Now that people have gotten used to getting those mail ballots, is it just another piece of mail?”
The lower turnout, if it holds, may prove a key factor in deciding some races. In California’s most competitive statewide race for the open U.S. Senate seat formerly held by the late Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein, polls are showing Democratic frontrunner Rep. Adam Schiff of Burbank and Republican frontrunner Steve Garvey favored by older voters, who are turning in their ballots at a much higher clip.
That could be bad news for the race’s other leading candidates, Democratic Reps. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee, both of whom have polled better with younger voters. The primary will decide which top two finishers continue to compete in November.
Voting by mail had historically been allowed by request for older and disabled voters, active duty military and U.S. citizens living abroad. Those early “absentee” ballots — the first batch tallied on Election Day before precinct ballots — trended strongly conservative.
That changed with the COVID-19 pandemic, when California officials, citing public health concerns, mailed every registered voter a ballot for the November 2020 presidential election for the first time. Nationally, voting by mail more than doubled in that election.
California passed a law the following year making the practice permanent, and it made its debut in the June 2022 primary. California is now among eight states that conduct elections almost entirely by mail. Before the pandemic, only Oregon, Washington, Utah and Colorado did so.
In many ways, the historic patterns of early voters and reliable voters casting ballots in low-turnout elections trending conservative remain true in this primary, Mitchell said. Those returned so far reflect voters who are “older, whiter, more conservative and affluent.”
A Political Data analysis of returned ballots shows that while far more registered Democrats have returned ballots than Republicans or independents — Democrats account for 47% of registered voters, Republicans 24% and independents 22% — Republicans are voting at a slightly higher rate.
While 1.2 million of the 10.3 million Democratic ballots sent out have been returned — about 12% — more than 770,000 of the 5.3 million Republican ballots have been submitted, or around 14%, the company reported. Independent voters registered with no party preference have returned about7% of the 6.4 million of those ballots sent out.
The company also found that 25% of voters age 65 and older had returned ballots, while just 3% of those 18-34 had done so. About 14% of White voters had returned ballots, compared with 10% of Asian voters, 6% of Latino voters and 9% of Black voters.
Election services technician Rey Torralba places mail-in ballots into a sorter to scan signatures at the Contra Costa County Elections Operations Center on Thursday, Feb. 29, 2024, in Martinez, Calif. (Aric Crabb/Bay Area News Group) (Aric Crabb/Bay Area News Group)
But Mitchell and other political analysts say in the new vote-by-mail landscape much remains unclear about how early voting impacts turnout and partisan tilt in elections.
Political consultant Mike Madrid of the data analysis firm GrassrootsLab said there’s a lack of excitement for the presidential primary because the November matchup has for some time now looked like a foregone conclusion: a rematch between Democratic President Joe Biden and Republican former President Donald Trump. That doesn’t necessarily spell low turnout for November when voters passionate on both sides will choose between them, he noted.
But Madrid said that high turnout doesn’t necessarily benefit Democrats and low turnout Republicans as much as it used to do. While Biden won the record-turnout 2020 election, Republicans picked up congressional seats. And he said the Democratic Party has grown whiter, wealthier and more college educated — all signs of high propensity voters who turn in their ballots in low-turnout elections. That is borne out in left-leaning coastal counties, where, with some exceptions, turnout is trending higher.
Around the Bay Area, this week, county registrars of voters were mostly seeing signs of a low-turnout election. Michael Borja, spokesman for the Santa Clara County registrar’s office, said they are projecting 45-55% turnout. But by late in the week just 12% had returned ballots.
Alameda County had about 9% returned late last week. Turnout was 33% in that county in 2022, and Registrar Tim Dupuis said, “It looks like we may have a low turnout for this election.”
In Contra Costa County, about 13% of ballots had been returned by late in the week.
“It’s a huge lift trying to get out our message that every vote matters and counts,” said Assistant Registrar Helen Nolan.
And in San Mateo County, where about 15% of ballots had been returned less than a week before the election, Chief Elections Officer Mark Church said ballot returns were trending far lower than many previous elections, and was projecting overall election turnout around 40%, well below the primary turnout of 55% in 2020 and 52% in 2016.
“As these numbers demonstrate,” Church said, “the competitiveness of the primary contests is a significant driver for turnout in presidential primary elections.”
Still need to vote?
If you are registered to vote and received your ballot, it will be counted as long as it is returned or postmarked by Tuesday, March 5, Election Day. Make sure if you put it in a mailbox March 5 that it’s before the last collection. You also may drop it off at your county elections office, polling place, vote centers and marked drop boxes. If you didn’t receive a ballot or aren’t registered, it’s not too late but you must do so in person at the election office, polling place or vote centers.