The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on Twitter/X: @WilnerHotline.
Please note: Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
With the Oregon State and Washington State football schedules being released, how many games do you expect the teams to win in 2024? And what are their chances of making the playoff with one loss? (Editor’s note: WSU was not included in the original question; we have added the Cougars to the discussion.) — @tpenn1997
We have known the 2024 opponents and locations for each of the ‘Pac-2′ teams since December. On Thursday, they released the full weekly lineups featuring the order of games against Mountain West foes.
WSU will play Texas Tech and Portland State at home, Washington in Seattle (at Lumen Field) and Oregon State on the road. The Cougars also have eight games against Mountain West opponents, of which six are part of the scheduling alliance between the Pac-12 and the MW.
OSU will play Cal and San Diego State on the road and Idaho State, Oregon, Purdue and WSU at home, plus six games against MW opponents via the scheduling alliance.
The Cougars’ lineup is solid, all things considered, while OSU’s schedule is a few games away from the version you would expect to see in a traditional Pac-12 season.
Replace three of the MW teams with Arizona, Utah and UCLA, for example, and you would have no idea the Beavers were part of a two-team league.
Projecting how the Beavers and Cougars will fare is a different matter. It’s too early to form conclusions — the transfer portal opens again in the second half of April — but at this point, WSU appears to have the better depth chart.
The Cougars were able to keep the bulk of their roster together, largely because, unlike OSU, they did not experience a coaching change. (Jake Dickert is returning for his third season.)
Both teams need quarterbacks, but WSU has more pieces to work with and could win seven or eight games. The Beavers will be hard pressed to reach that level of success. In addition to the roster questions, they have a rookie head coach (Trent Bray).
In the extremely unlikely event that either team finishes 11-1, it would get serious consideration for one of the seven at-large bids to the expanded College Football Playoff.
There would be immense pressure on the selection committee to rank the ‘Pac-2’ school high enough to result in an at-large bid, but its inclusion would come at the expense of a third or fourth team from either the SEC or Big Ten.
Would the committee have the guts to cross one of the Big Two? (I think we all know the answer to that.)
It’s certainly fun to think about, but the likelihood of either team being good enough to seriously pursue a CFP bid next season is extremely remote.
Any reason Cal fans should be worried about coach Mark Madsen going back to Stanford? — @Olibbey1
I would not completely ignore the possibility, but it does not seem likely. The Bears gave Madsen his big break, a chance to coach at the highest level of the sport after four seasons at Utah Valley.
Yes, he played for Stanford. But leaving Cal after one year would require a degree of abject ambition, mixed with a total absence of loyalty, that doesn’t exist in Madsen’s DNA, according to those who know him.
However, it should be readily apparent to fans of both Bay Area teams that Stanford blew it by not dismissing Jerod Haase last spring and hiring Madsen before he accepted Cal’s offer.
The misstep could cost the Cardinal dearly for years.
In your estimation, how much more insane will name, image and likeness (NIL) deals get in college sports? — @MrEd315
First, be aware that the dollar figures publicly attached to NIL contracts for players are often inflated.
That said, they are significant — the best players at high-value positions can receive seven-figure deals — and they are climbing.
However, we don’t believe the trajectory will continue unabated for one reason: The players will be declared employees in the next two years, either by the NCAA or the courts, and therefore entitled to compensation directly from the schools.
At that point, NIL becomes a secondary issue … if it exists at all.
What are the chances that the Big Ten, SEC and perhaps a few other brand-name schools form a football league outside of NCAA jurisdiction? If you expect it to happen, what’s the timeframe? — @memomoment
The chances are at least 50/50.
We included a mini-NFL structure, supported by private equity, in a late-November article that laid out our vision of college football in 2033. And the conferences are openly discussing it at the highest levels of power (i.e., the presidents), as ESPN reported earlier this week.
It makes sense on several levels. The Big Ten and SEC, in particular, have outgrown the NCAA and the FBC structure.
But as Washington State president Kirk Schulz noted Thursday, the breakaway conferences would need some sort of governing body. “Why not reform what’s there,” he said of the NCAA, “as opposed to ‘Let’s recreate something.’”
If a breakaway comes, there seemingly are two possible timelines:
— In the next 18 months, with the ACC on fragile ground (due to Florida State’s lawsuit) and the court system dismantling the NCAA model week by week.
— Not until late in the decade, when the Big Ten begins negotiating its next media rights deal.
Either way, drastic change is coming in the form of consolidation.
Washington State and Oregon State won’t be alone for long.
What is the date the 10 outgoing schools officially leave the conference? What is the date the Pac12 Networks go dark? — @tobsandmags
The conference baseball tournament in late May is the final live event airing on the Pac-12 Networks. In June, they will show highlights and replays before going dark as a media distribution company on June 30. (The production studio in San Ramon, Calif., will continue to function in support of WSU and OSU.)
My understanding is the same timeline applies to the departing schools.
Even though USC and UCLA originally announced they would join the Big Ten on Aug. 2, 2024, and even though the Pac-12’s grant-of-rights contract expires on Aug. 1, the 10 outbound members are expected to join their new conferences on July 1.
However, I don’t believe that date is official just yet.
On a scale of 1 (no chance) to 10 (definitely), how likely is it that UCLA coach Mick Cronin bolts for Louisville or another plum college basketball job? — @MattZemek
Cronin doesn’t look happy, his team is struggling, and he has bemoaned (publicly) UCLA’s NIL situation. Also, his hometown, Cincinnati, is halfway between two attractive jobs that are vacant (Ohio State) and likely to become vacant in a few weeks (Louisville).
However, Cronin’s buyout is substantial. According to the L.A. Times, Cronin and his new employer would owe UCLA $20 million if he leaves before the end of March and $16 million if he departs in April.
The Buckeyes can handle the cost without a deep impact on their budget. But would either school — would any school — deem Cronin’s services so desirable that they would pay UCLA at least $16 million? Or would they be better off with another well-respected coach whose buyout is substantially lower?
Our guess: Cronin isn’t leaving. On your scale, the likelihood that he “bolts” is a 3 or 4.
Did you hear anything positive from the Pac-12 press conference Thursday introducing new commissioner Teresa Gould? To me, it sounds like it’s Group of Five purgatory for WSU and OSU. — @sally_riley
From the perspective of the ‘Pac-2’ schools, the most encouraging sign, frankly, was hearing Gould talk passionately about supporting their athletes — about “fighting” for them.
The situation looks bleak for the Cougars and Beavers in many regards. But keep three things in mind:
— They have the resources, in the form of $250 million (approximately) in assets, to rebuild the conference.
— The landscape is changing so fast, nobody knows what the major college structure will look like in a few years.
— WSU and OSU have played all their cards exactly right to this point in their journey.
Isn’t the run by the WSU basketball team this year impressive, especially considering preseason projections and the prediction of a loss to USC last night in your power rankings? — @Opinion__Peace
Yes, we predicted a USC victory — and darn near nailed it, I might add — but that’s incidental compared to the broader story of Washington State’s rise.
Remember, the starting lineup was hit hard by attrition last spring, with TJ Bamba, Mouhamed Gueye, Justin Powell and DJ Rodman moving on from a team that tied for fifth place.
As a result, the Cougars were picked 10th in the preseason media poll in October. And they gave no indication early in the season that the roster had a special quality, partly because the non-conference schedule was pillowy soft.
Related Articles
Picking the 2024 Big 12 race: Utah, Kansas, OSU, Arizona on top
Pac-12 commissioner Teresa Gould on her mission and more
From NIL and the CFP to the NLRB and more: Your guide to sweeping changes across college sports
Best of the West: Gonzaga’s bubble status entering showdown with SMC
Pac-12 WBB power ratings: UCLA soars while OSU and Colorado drop
They were swept on the Mountain trip to begin Pac-12 play but have been superb since the calendar turned, winning 13 of 16, including a victory at Arizona last week.
Kyle Smith is the heavy favorite for Pac-12 Coach of the Year and could claim one of the major national honors, as well.
What a story.
What will the Pac-12 Hotline be known as when the fall of 2024 rolls around? — @MarcSheehan006
There will be a new name by the summer, if not sooner, and we’ll keep things simple.
The leaders in the clubhouse are 1) Wilner Hotline, which is my Twitter/X handle, or 2) College Hotline, which was the name of this operation for a decade before we switched to the Pac-12 Hotline.
(Much of our most important reporting on the conference, including Larry Scott’s misguided media strategy and excessive spending habits, came during the College Hotline era.)
I’ll have more on the name change and our content plans in coming months. But rest assured, we will provide thorough coverage of the Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC, along with the next phase of the Pac-12.
In fact, we recently published forecasts for the Big Ten and Big 12 football races next season.
We aren’t going anywhere. Our goal, now and always, is to serve the faithful Hotline readers.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline
*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.