The latest poll in California’s hotly contested race for U.S. Senate shows former baseball star Steve Garvey rocketing into second place behind frontrunner Adam Schiff, who has solidified his lead while fellow Democratic representatives Katie Porter and Barbara Lee struggle to gain traction.
Tuesday’s poll by Emerson College Polling sponsored by Nexstar Media found Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff maintaining his lead with 28%, followed by Republican former Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres first baseman Steve Garvey at 22%.
The poll put Democratic Reps. Katie Porter at 16% and Barbara Lee at 9%. Republicans Eric Early and James Bradley and Democrat Christina Pascucci drew 2% each, with 17% still undecided. The two candidates with the most votes regardless of political party will compete for the seat in the November election.
The poll comes more than a week after the second of two debates and ahead of a third Monday night in Los Angeles, and provides a window into how the race is shaping up now that ballots are out, voters are paying attention and campaigns are spending big on ads to make the case to a dwindling share of undecideds.
Emerson College has previously polled on the race in November 2023 and January, and the latest results show Schiff and Porter each have climbed three percentage points since January, Garvey four points and Lee one point, while Early dropped a point, and Bradley and Pascucci’s support was unchanged.
“Candidate support varies by age group,” Kimball said. “Schiff’s support is highest among voters in their 60s, at 45%, and those over 70, with 39%, whereas Porter’s strength is among young voters, where she holds 23%. Notably, this group has the highest share of undecided voters at 28%. Garvey’s strength is also with older voters, with 33% support among voters over 70.”
The poll also found that independent voters, the Golden State’s third-largest bloc — Democrats account for 47% of voter registration, Republicans 24% and no party preference voters 22% — are virtually split between Garvey at 23% and Schiff at 22%.
The latest poll comes as the four leading candidates prepared to square off one last time Tuesday evening in an hour-long televised debate hosted by NBC4 Los Angeles.
NBC4 News Anchor Colleen Williams, NBC4 Chief Political Reporter Conan Nolan and Noticiero Telemundo 52 News Anchor Alejandra Ortíz will moderate the 6 p.m. debate. It can be seen on NBC affiliates and streamed on Roku channel 4232, Samsung TV Plus channel 1035, NBC San Diego News on Xumo Play and NBC San Diego News on Amazon Fire TV.