A direct attack by Iran on Israel may be “imminent” following the killing of a top Iranian commander in Damascus, experts have reportedly warned.
Iran has so far been reluctant “to be directly involved in the war with Israel”, said Sky News‘s Middle East correspondent Alistair Bunkall. But intelligence sources in Washington reportedly said that Iran is planning a direct hit in retaliation for the deaths of Revolutionary Guards commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi and other senior military officials in an attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria.
“We will make them regret this crime and other similar ones with the help of God,” said Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, after the 1 April attack. “No move by any enemy against our sacred system goes unanswered.”
What did the commentators say?
The killings were more than 10 days ago, but Iran’s leaders “tend to be quite calculated in what they do”, said Bunkall, and “don’t often act rashly”. They are reportedly planning to target military or government infrastructure, rather than Israeli civilians. This would be seen by Iran as a “like for like” response, he wrote, but it’s not clear whether the US and Israel would agree.
Tehran could direct its proxies to strike Israel directly, or carry out such an attack itself, said Middle East analyst Jonathan Spyer in The Spectator. The latter option is “the most risky” for Tehran, and would be “likely to precipitate open war between the regime and Israel”.
Although it “remains likely that Iran will attempt to strike Israel directly, and hard”, said Daniel Markind in Forbes, Iran is in “a terrible position”. If its response triggers “full scale war” with Israel, it is “doubtful that the Islamic Republic can survive”.
In the wake of the Damascus attack, armed rebellion has “broken out” in Baluchistan Province in Iran’s east. The Iranian currency, the rial, has also “crashed”, losing 30% of its value, and the country “faces potential economic peril”.
Iran has a “huge problem” and although 45 years of “manufactured enmity” with Israel “cannot be reversed overnight”, the “most logical way out is to reach some sort of accommodation with Israel, with whom its people have no real quarrel”.
Although Iran “talks a big game”, said Saeid Jafari on Atlantic Council, it is “limited in its ability to respond to Israel”. Iranian military and political officials have “repeatedly emphasised that they are not seeking a broader confrontation in the region”, and Iran is “neither technologically competitive with Israel in terms of weaponry nor comforted by the support of a powerful ally like the United States”.
So, despite Tehran’s calls for revenge, it “doesn’t possess the necessary power, willingness, and ability to engage in a conflict with the potential to escalate into a full-scale regional war with Israel”.
What next?
Not everyone feels reassured, said Time. Anti-aircraft and anti-missile system operators in Israel are “on high alert for any incoming attack from the East”, and civilians are facing a “new round of panic” that includes “cleaning and preparing their bomb shelters”.
Although the Iranian response “will most likely not be a direct Iranian attack on Israel”, said Spyer in The Spectator, “either way, I’ve stocked up on bottled water and tinned tuna, just in case”.
Joe Biden has promised Israel “ironclad” support from Washington if Iran were to strike, despite the president’s recent criticism of its operations in Gaza. “We’re going to do all we can to protect Israel’s security,” he said.