With Russell Wilson now retired from the NFL, the conversation around him now shifts towards his Hall of Fame candidacy. Wilson announced his retirement and commitment to CBS on Wednesday. Despite his excellence with the Seattle Seahawks, his move to the Denver Broncos mired what once was an excellent career.
As NFL analyst Mike Sando for The Athletic notes, “No recent NFL star has needed the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s mandatory five-year waiting period more than Russell Wilson needs it right now.”
Sando notes that Wilson was widely respected as a quarterback before moving to the Denver Broncos in 2022. However, the move to Denver suddenly made him a laughing stock and a target easy to “mock.” Wilson’s downfall in Denver was historic by statistical standards.
Since the turn of the century, no other quarterback experienced the fall off that Wilson did. In the first 10 seasons of his career, Russell Wilson averaged 0.12 expected points added per pass play. Over his last four seasons, he average -0.5 expected points added per pass play. To compare, that’s like Matthew Stafford becoming Justin Fields.
Russell Wilson’s Hall of Fame Case is Complicated
GettyDespite achieving a level of excellence early in his career, Wilson’s recent struggles should cause issues when eligible to enter the Hall of Fame.
Another factor that Sando notes against Wilson are his 10 Pro Bowl appearances. While usually used as an argument for making the Hall of Fame, Sando asserts that 5 of those Pro Bowls were replacements for another player who decided not to participate. That means he would not have been a Pro Bowl candidate that season if the players he replaced actually played.
However, this is not a huge issue as other quarterbacks have made the Hall of Fame with similar true Pro Bowl appearances. The Pro Bowl numbers seem just heavily inflated, and people will make note of when the time comes.
A bigger issue may come from Wilson’s own teammates. Richard Sherman, among other former Seahawks, critiqued how former head coach Pete Carroll and current general manager John Schneider protected Wilson in his early years. That treatment caused the Legion of Boom to dislike Wilson as the team started building around the quarterback and not the elite defense.
Despite the Detracting Factors, There’s Still a Path
GettyPeople will focus on the negatives with Wilson, but he truly had an elite peak as a quarterback no matter how you spin it.
The quality of the Legion of Boom and Marshawn Lynch are hard to ignore with Wilson. That being said, as Sando says, “it’s a team game.” Sando conducted quarterback surveys with league execs and coaches. In 2020 and 2021, 90 of 100 of them voted Wilson as a tier-1 quarterback. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Patrick Mahomes, and Deshaun Watson are the only other tier-1 quarterbacks in those two years.
Wilson was one of the most unique players of his era being a dual threat quarterback. As time goes on, hopefully people will recognize that. It may be a difficult road for Wilson’s Hall of Fame chances. However, he still ranks in the top 20 to 15 of most key-passing metrics while providing a difference-making rushing ability. In five years, a lot can change, and perhaps people will see how great Wilson was in his NFL career.
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