GettyMatt Olson high fiving his teammates after hitting a homerun.
Baseball is back, and with another exciting day of games following a great opening day yesterday, there’s a plethora of intriguing player prop markets to explore. Let’s dive in.
Below are a few player prop bets our AI-powered projection model identifies as offering an edge, ranging from superstars projected to exceed their expectations to some unexpected diamonds in the rough.
MLB Props for March 29
Carlos Rodon: Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120, DraftKings)
Early in the baseball season, starting pitchers often don’t pitch deep into games, making betting on the under for pitcher strikeouts a viable strategy. Rodon, coming off a career-worst year and sidelined for months due to forearm and lower back injuries, is particularly suited for this strategy. The Houston Astros, known for having the 3rd lowest strikeout percentage last season, pose a challenge, and it’s unlikely Rodon will surpass that number by pitching deep into the game.
Bobby Miller: Over 1.5 Walks (-120, DraftKings)
Early in the season, it’s common for pitchers to issue a significant number of walks. Miller, entering his sophomore MLB season, possesses impressive pitching abilities but has consistently grappled with control issues, evidenced by his 2.32 BB/9 rate last season, exceeding the league average. Additionally, he’s up against the formidable St. Louis Cardinals lineup, which, despite being underrated, ranked among the top 10 in BB% last season.
Matt Olson: Over 0.5 Hits (-175, DraftKings)
Olson enters today’s game riding high on an impressive streak, having secured hits in his last 12 consecutive games. Against Zach Wheeler, who has shown a vulnerability to left-handed batters, allowing a batting average of 0.265 against them last season, Olson is poised for success. Our model predicts a 77% likelihood of Olson getting a hit today, reflecting a substantial 36% variance from his typical performance.
Kyle Schwarber: Over 1.5 Strikeouts (-135, DraftKings)
Today, Schwarber’s up first against Strider, one of the best pitchers out there. Strider’s got a mean slider, and Schwarber’s history against it isn’t pretty â just a .067 batting average and a sky-high strikeout rate of 43.5%. Last season, Schwarber struck out an average of 1.92 times per game facing the Atlanta Braves. Leading off means he’ll see a lot of action today, but it’s likely he’ll struggle against Strider’s tough pitching.
A.J. Puk: Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-165, DraftKings)
Puk is set to make his starting debut on the mound for the Miami Marlins today, and I’m anticipating some impressive performances. He’s known as a high-strikeout pitcher, boasting a career 11.1 K/9 rate, consistently fanning batters across various levels of play. Additionally, the Pittsburgh Pirates‘ lineup is filled with players prone to strikeouts, particularly against left-handed pitchers, with a hefty 24% strikeout rate against them last season. So, it looks like Puk could have a field day on the mound against this lineup.
Parlay of the Day
Jose Ramirez + Mookie Betts: Both to Record a Hit (-112, DraftKings)
Ramirez and Betts both have favorable matchups today. Ramirez is facing the Oakland Athletics, against whom he has recorded a hit in 13 of the last 14 games. Betts has begun the season strongly, and I anticipate this trend to persist, especially against a left-handed pitcher, considering his impressive 0.302 batting average against lefties last season. Our model suggests a 60% implied probability for both players to get a hit today.
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