The Detroit Lions are the team most likely to win the NFC North, according to ESPN Analytics. Despite finishing last in the division last year, the formula comes out favorable for the Lions.
As things stand, Detroit has a 38% chance of winning the division. The Green Bay Packers sit at 33%. The Chicago Bears are surprisingly down at 19%, and the Minnesota Vikings sit at just 10%.
The combination of upgrades along the roster and a potentially easier schedule is what could cause the Lions to make the jump back to first place.
The Detroit Lions Are Poised to Win the NFC North
GettyLions’ head coach Dan Campbell
The strongest argument for the team going from worst-to-first is that they tied for third place already, and were a half of a game away from second place. They were only two games behind first place. Not many other last-place teams can say that.
So, they were already close and made some strong adjustments to the roster. Penei Sewell is changing positions, but going back to a spot he played in college. They added a potential plug-and-play option at right tackle, and signed an upgraded free agent at center.
The defensive back end has questions, but the defensive front should be as good as it ever has been under Dan Campbell. When you combine that with a potential upgrade at offensive playcaller, you have a team that is poised to win a few more games than the season prior.
The schedule happens to break in their favor as well.
The Lions Have a Much Easier Schedule Than Their NFC North Rivals
There are different ways to judge a team’s schedule in 2026, and while the rankings can vary, almost every ranking says that the Lions have an easier schedule than the rest of their division. The Lions get the benefit of a last-place schedule, which strongly favors them. For example, in the NFC West, the other three teams get the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, and Seattle Seahawks. All three are tough matchups.
Meanwhile, the Lions will get to face the Arizona Cardinals at that time. This is why the Bears are looking at a drop-off. They played an easier schedule last year and won a lot of close games.
ESPN Analytics projects the Bears to lose some of those coin flip games now that the schedule is a bit more difficult. The Minnesota Vikings have serious questions at quarterback entering the season. They rattled off five wins to close out the 2025 season and avoid last place, but the analytics are not high on them entering 2026.
Then, there are the Green Bay Packers. The Packers are always in the mix, but they are leaning into a lot of their draft picks that are unproven this season. Jordan Morgan, Anthony Belton, and Matthew Golden all need to have big roles for the team to thrive.
It has the door open for the Lions to step right back in and win the NFC North. It took a year to reset, but they appear to be right back in the mix.
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