Troy Renck: The Broncos host a home playoff game on Saturday. Can’t wait. The Broncos host the Buffalo Bills in a home playoff game on Saturday. Can’t watch. Welcome to the Broncos Magical Mystery Tour. Denver aims to win its first postseason game in a decade, and it has ignited a debate surrounding a team that inexplicably left a vapor trail of concerns after 14 wins. Rust vs. Rest? Are the Broncos better suited to upset Buffalo — yes, they are an underdog as the No. 1 seed — after a week off or at a disadvantage because the Bills arrive with momentum from knocking off the AFC’s hottest team?
Sean Keeler: Expert textpert, choking smokers, don’t you think the joker laughs at you? The Tragical History Tour gives the advantage to rest. And to Payton. The Broncos coach is 4-0 lifetime in the first playoff game coming off a postseason bye, including 3-0 in his opening tilt. He’s 2-0 lifetime in his first postseason game as a playoff ‘1’ seed and 4-1 as a ‘1’ overall in the postseason. Although the less said about the 2018 NFC Championship, the better.
Renck: Let’s be clear, this topic is really Bust vs. Best. Can the Broncos show they are a worthy AFC bully or will they wilt against a longtime conference power seeking a memorable playoff run with reigning MVP Josh Allen in his prime? Advantage Denver. Sean Payton has never lost a playoff game after receiving a bye, with wins in 2006, 2009 and 2018. He is also 13-3 in his last 16 regular-season byes and undefeated with the Broncos. Everyone believes Allen will find the nearest phone booth and turn into Superman. But Payton offers kryptonite with his coaching acumen in these games, especially at home, where he is 7-3 in the postseason.
Keeler: With all due respect to Jaguars coach Liam Coen, who will no doubt clip out this paragraph and hang it up on a bulletin board in his training facility, winning at EverBank Stadium in January isn’t winning at Empower Field in January. The Jags have four postseason home wins in their franchise history (4-2 record). The Broncos have racked up four home playoff wins since 2013. And Denver went 4-0, combined, in the ’13-14 and ’15-16 postseasons. Broncos Country has been waiting a decade to make the building shake. And it will shake, my friend. With enough juice to melt all the folding tables in Erie County.
Renck: This is not college, either. Indiana is the only team to win after being idle in the playoffs. The NFL is a different animal. The Broncos will be rested, not relaxed. It is impossible to take a deep breath and lose your edge when everyone outside the building views you suspiciously. Also, the Broncos got healthier. The return of linebacker Dre Greenlaw should help the run defense, and perhaps in spots, coverage of tight ends. And the idea that the Broncos offense will be rusty? How could we tell the difference? Kidding, kidding. Denver is 6-3 in its last nine home playoff games, and 19-9 overall. In a toss-up game, the rest will give the Broncos a slight edge.
Keeler: I’d throw out what we saw from this offense at Kansas City and against the Chargers. (No. Really. Toss it. It stunk.) The Broncos were keeping it vanilla, keeping it simple, right? Right? That’s what I keep telling myself, at any rate, every time I think about Josh Allen and The Josh Allen Narrative that’s about to dominate the headlines this week. But the ghost of John Lennon has been whispering in my ear lately, and he keeps whispering two things: One, the walrus was Paul. Two, it’s hard for AFC ‘1’ seeds to screw up their postseason home openers. The top team in the bracket over the last 15 seasons is 11-4 in their postseason openers and 8-2 since 2015. When it comes to precedent, that’s more than enough to rust my case.
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