The 158th running of the Belmont Stakes will take place on Saturday and for the third and final year, the race will be held not in bustling shadow of New York City but three hours upstate at the Spa, with the venerable old Saratoga Race Course pinch-hitting while Belmont’s overhaul wraps up. And we’re looking at how the experts are handling their Belmont Stakes picks.
By this third jewel in the horse racing Triple Crown, the field of 3-year-olds usually winnows, and that is the case here, with nine horses prepared to line up. That includes surprising Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo, who sat out the Preakness Stakes to prep for this races, as well as Derby runner-up (and pre-race favorite) Renegade and Chief Wallabee, who was fourth.
Renegade, who had the challenge of going off on the rail in the Derby, is back as the favorite in this race, currently 2-to-1. Chief Wallabee is the No. 2 choice, at 3-to-1, and Golden Tempo, breaking from the outside at No. 9, is 9-to-2.
Surveying the field of expert picks out there, a divide between the two favorites is pretty clear. But for the sharps looking to cash in heftier tickets, there is a “value play” developing, too.
Belmont Stakes Picks: Renegade a Worthy Favorite
Before we get to the longer shot, let’s start with the favorite, Renegade. Legendary handicapper and NBC sports personality Randy Moss is going with him.
As he said, via “The Sports Gambling Podcast“: “I would put Renegade in the top spot in exactas, trifectas and superfectas. The pace does not favor Golden Tempo but he is a very reliable come-from-behinder, even in slow-paced situations. So I would for sure put Golden Tempo in your exotics as well, maybe not on top of Renegade in the win spot but I would put him certainly behind Renegade in second, third and fourth. I would put Powershift in there as well.”
And former NHL star-turned-handicapper Eddie Olczyk agrees: “Well, 100% I was going to pick him in the Kentucky Derby, but Renegade ended up on the rail and I wasn’t too keen on where he ended up – coming second to Golden Tempo, who was my third-placed pick in the race so I ended up getting lucky on the exacta, even though Emerging Markets was the main horse I picked in the Derby. But I think the race (Belmont) is going to set up absolutely perfect for Renegade. I think he is the best equine athlete in this race.”
Maggie Wolfendale Backing Chief Wallabee
But there are supporters of the No. 2 favorite on the board, Chief Wallabee, among those making Belmont Stakes picks. And among them is one of the sharpest horse minds in the business, reporter Maggie Wolfendale.
As she said: “Watching (his second-place finish in) the Florida Derby, he kind of gets to wandering. I think that was a product of needing blinkers. I watched this horse’s Derby. He arguably runs best in the Kentucky Derby because he’s a bit more closer to that pace that ultimately collapsed.
“I don’t want to say severely interfered with, but he did get interfered with within the last three-sixteenths of a mile and was still finishing. I would think that he’s the horse that I want coming into the Belmont, Chief Wallabee.”
Belmont Stakes Picks: Emerging Market at 6-to-1
It’s the longer shots who can help you stretch your dollar if they hit the board for your Belmont Stakes picks. And among those, there is a growing sentiment that the name to watch is Emerging Market. As ESPN’s Katherine Terrell wrote, “If Emerging can set himself up in good position near the front of the pack, he might be able to spring an upset and provide a good value play.”
Fox Sports’ Chris Fallica: “I expect Emerging Market to run better than he did in the Derby (he was 10th), but I also didn’t account for him being far too close to a fast pace, stuck inside and then losing a shoe during the course of the race. But it’s the Derby and that stuff happens. I expect a much better trip here, and we should get a price relatively close to the 6-1 ML.”
Ed DeRosa of Horse Racing Nation: “Who do we like? The glib answer is ‘a bunch,’ but the direct answer is Emerging Market most. Obviously a 10th-place finish behind two horses we’re trying to beat doesn’t look great on paper. … Emerging Market made a strong middle move in the Kentucky Derby — one that if Emerging Market was a superstar would have put him in position to win. He wasn’t good enough then, but that was only his third career start, and now Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown has had five weeks to get this one into top form.”
And another Horse Racing Nation presence, Matt Shifman, has this to say about taking a run at 6-to-1 no Emerging Market: “There are plenty of reasons to back Commandment, Chief Wallabee or Renegade as the possible winner of the Belmont. … (But) Emerging Market has the potential to be one of the top 3-year-olds of the year. He was my pick in the Derby, and I will stick with my evaluation of his ability. Emerging Market is the top pick in the Belmont Stakes.”
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