Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based prediction market, took a lot of bets regarding President Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday night, including on the potential use of certain phrases (e.g., “low IQ”), on whether he’d drink water mid-speech, and on how long the speech would run.
On Monday, Trump gave speculators who take him at his word a clue, telling reporters it’s “going to be a long speech, because we have so much to talk about.” That guidance, however unspecific for wagering purposes, was true by any measure — Trump’s speech ran 108 minutes, the longest SOTU in decades, breaking his own record.
[Note: Polymarket was initially blocked in the United States amid regulatory scrutiny but the second Trump administration has eased the regulatory environment for prediction markets. Notably, Donald Trump, Jr. became an advisor to Polymarket after his firm, 1789 Capital, invested in the company.]
U.S. Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) responded to the Polymarket SOTU bets and wrote: “Just insane that we don’t regulate rigged markets like this out of existence. This is not the outcome of a game. This is a question with an answer that already exists. Trump’s inside circle KNOW THE ANSWER and can make a mint. So corrupt.”
[Note: States regulate most gambling, including on sports, while the federal government regulates financial markets; the hybrid quality of the prediction markets has created a battle over regulation jurisdictions.]
Just insane that we don’t regulate rigged markets like this out of existence. This is not the outcome of a game. This is a question with an answer that already exists. Trump’s inside circle KNOW THE ANSWER and can make a mint. So corrupt.https://t.co/M6LGnRwdnr
— Chris Murphy
(@ChrisMurphyCT) February 24, 2026
The length of a SOTU always draws media speculation, but that attention has increased with the prediction markets action. PBS News reported that some Republican sources said Trump’s State of the Union Address would be over 2 hours, possibly as long as 3 hours.
The speech fell short of 2 hours by just 12 minutes, as information supplied by those cited sources encouraged action on the “over two hours” bet, likely making more money available for predictors taking the under. Critics like Murphy say that insiders obviously know specifics about such predetermined outcomes that allow them to unfairly trade on their information.
In January, a Polymarket trader brought in more than $400,000 wagering on the U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and its specific timing, prompting suspicions of insider information taking advantage on the lightly regulated platform. The trader was not identified.