The 2016-17 Warriors, a superteam built around Steph Curry and Kevin Durant, led one of the most efficient offenses in NBA history. Their offensive rating of 115.6 is this year’s league average.
The Boston Celtics are on their way to a new NBA record for offensive rating at 122.5, one year after the Sacramento Kings set the previous record. At this pace, the best offense in any given season is likely to become the most efficient in league history.
Teams are averaging 115 points per game, 14 more than the league median a decade ago. A number of factors have contributed to the years-long, league-wide scoring boom, chief among them the 3-point revolution started by Curry and the Warriors themselves.
Another major variable, though, is the way the game has been officiated. There’s a sentiment within the league that the NBA has tilted the rules and their enforcement too far in the direction of scoring. Players have smartly geared their games to draw more fouls, often baiting officials by initiating contact in clever ways to earn free throws — among the most efficient ways to score.
“It’s never been easier to score in the league,” said Warriors assistant coach and acclaimed defensive mind Ron Adams, echoing Steve Kerr’s frustration earlier in the season.
But the pendulum could be swinging back toward an equilibrium. Since the All-Star break, free throw rates and scoring overall have declined. The 76ers and Knicks combined for 152 points on Sunday night, the lowest game total since 2016. Last Sunday, half of the 16 teams that played failed to crack 100 points. Golden State scored a season-low 88 points in Boston a week ago.
“Recently there’s been fewer garbage-type fouls,” Adams said. “Little incidental stuff, they’re letting them play a little more one way or another. I actually feel (recently) the balance has been a little better with offense and defense. You’ve got to be on your toes.”
Although there haven’t been any midseason rule changes, referees changing their tendencies isn’t unprecedented. Officials can tweak their points of emphasis to reflect what they deem they are or aren’t doing well. It’s understood that refs swallow their whistles more in the postseason.
Draymond Green has noticed a change, and he’s not surprised.
“Yeah, that’s usually how it goes when it’s playoff time, preparing for the playoffs,” Green said.
If the refs are going to let players get away with more physicality, the Warriors (34-30) will have to contend with that environment. Even if Kerr said they’re “not necessarily” better equipped to play in games with fewer fouls, there’s evidence that they’re well prepared for that style.
“We’re definitely not hurt by it because we don’t have anybody that’s any good at flopping,” Kerr said.
The recent apparent change in officiating has been noted by national pundits like Tom Haberstroh, Ethan Sherwood Strauss and Bill Simmons. According to Action Network writer Matt Moore, foul rates on drives are down by 11% since the All-Star break, and the top five teams in free throw rate are down nearly 16%.
“I feel like we’ve had more games where the refs have let the teams play a little bit, not call some of the ticky-tack stuff that was called early on in the season,” Kerr said Monday. “I’ve enjoyed it.”
Adams, who has studied NBA box scores since he coached college ball in the early ‘70s, said he’s amazed at some of the free throw totals this year. Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns and Luka Doncic each scoring over 60 points in a single week was a flashpoint. They shot 23, 15 and 16 foul shots, respectively.
Weeks before, the Nuggets defeated the Warriors in part by winning the free throw battle 32 to 23. The disparity was especially stark in the second half, irking Kerr: “It’s a parade to the free throw line, and it’s disgusting to watch,” he said postgame.
“I have no problem with the officials themselves — all across the league, we have really good officials,” Kerr said then. “I have a problem with the way we’re legislating defense out of the game. That’s what we’re doing in the NBA. The way we’re teaching the officials, we’re just enabling players to BS their way to the foul line. If I were a fan, I wouldn’t have wanted to watch the second half of that game.”
Before the All-Star break, the Warriors ranked 20th in defensive rating at 116.6. In 11 games since the break, in which more physical play is apparently being permitted, they rank sixth (109.0).
That improvement has also coincided with rotation changes such as replacing Klay Thompson with Brandin Podziemski in the starting lineup, playing Draymond Green exclusively at center and giving Trayce Jackson-Davis a bigger role. But Golden State appears to be adapting well to the officiating tendencies.
Adams and the coaching staff always have a lot on their plate in terms of defensive scheming in the pace-and-space age. But the foundation of any good defense, Adams said, is sound fundamentals, succinct rules to follow and personnel committed to playing aggressively.
The most important, and toughest to acquire, is the third factor: personnel. In Green, Jackson-Davis, Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, Gary Payton II and Andrew Wiggins, the Warriors have a solid core of athletic, heady defenders who should be capable of covering up for less gifted defenders’ deficiencies.
If those types of players can get away with playing more physically, the Warriors could alter their strategies.
“The league changes every few months, not even every season,” Adams said. “And so you’re constantly trying to make these adjustments. Trying to be innovative, think out of the box.”
Fewer called fouls could help Golden State defensively. One of the Warriors’ biggest weaknesses defensively is sending too many opponents to the foul line. When they’ve struggled the most, the Warriors send too many opponents to the foul line. They rank 23rd in opposing free throws attempted and Kerr has routinely mentioned limiting fouls as the key to defensive improvement. After the All-Star break, Golden State ranks eighth in opponent free throws.
On the other side, teams are bound to be more handsy with Steph Curry on the perimeter. That could have an effect, especially with the two-time MVP coming off a sprained right ankle, but it won’t be novel to Curry, who has dealt with every brand of defensive pressure throughout his 15-year career.
Curry in particular and the Warriors in general don’t rely on getting to the line to score. A player like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who takes four more free throws per game than Curry (who ranks 40th in attempts per game) could be more impacted by a quieter whistle.
On Monday night in San Antonio, Green, Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski at various points threw their arms up in disbelief after their drives to the basket through contact went uncalled — when the same plays very well could have been whistled dead a couple months ago. But on the other end, Green and Jackson-Davis could be more physical with Victor Wembanyama, bodying him off his spot and challenging him tougher at the rim.
At least for one Warrior, more aggression is always good.
“Of course,” Green said when asked if he had noticed a change in officiating. “I love it.”
While the league might believe that more scoring is the most fan-friendly brand of basketball, Adams holds that the game is at its best when there’s more of a balance between offense and defense. So might the Warriors.