On Feb. 22, the Warriors were 27-26 and in 10th place.
Three weeks later, the Warriors are 33-29 … and in a virtual tie for 10th place.
Thursday’s 125-122 loss to the Bulls was a double whammy for the Warriors. Above them in the standings, the Mavericks, Kings and Suns each won. It was a snapshot of how a cluttered play-in picture has made it difficult for the Warriors to progress.
Even after turning around their season with an 11-3 February and going 6-3 since the All-Star break, the Warriors remain staunchly in the play-in round. Their playoff probability has risen only modestly since the break, from 48.6% to 58.9% — from a coin flip to sitting in the dealer seat at a blackjack table.
They control their own destiny, but just barely. Per Basketball Reference’s playoff probabilities report, the Warriors have a 12.5% chance of escaping the play-in round of seeds seven through 10.
The severity of Steph Curry’s ankle injury threatens to further complicate the team’s stated goal of snatching the No. 6 seed. But no matter how healthy their superstar is, the parity at the bottom half of the Western Conference will be a serious obstacle.
“This is the deepest that I’ve ever seen either conference, I would say,” Warriors coach Steve Kerr said this week. “Because night after night, it feels like you’re swimming upstream. Everybody’s good.”
The teams seeded six through 10 the Warriors are competing with are the Mavericks, Suns, Kings and Lakers. Of those teams, only the Warriors and Kings (5-3) have played over .500 ball since the All-Star break. But none have bottomed out.
“I think we won like 13 out of 16 and we’re still in 10th,” Kerr said. “Maybe we moved up from 11th? Maybe when this run started we were further back? But we have made up a lot of ground, and we are within striking distance of a lot of teams. We feel good about that, but we’ve got to keep playing at a high level if we want to make more ground up.”
For much of the past decade, the West has been a better overall conference than the East. But that dynamic is typically cyclical, if not random. Kerr has a few theories as to why this year’s Western Conference is so deep.
The new play-in postseason format, instituted in 2020, incentivizes more teams to compete rather than tank for a draft pick. Any team that gets in the top 10 now has a puncher’s chance at making a run; just last year, the Lakers went from the play-in to the conference final.
Then at the top of the standings, teams like Oklahoma City, Minnesota, Denver and the Clippers are either in their top stage or an ascending point in their roster building. They either have young stars (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards) or superstars in their prime (Nikola Jokic and Kawhi Leonard) to build around.
Then there’s the style of play. More teams are shooting more 3-pointers than ever before, which can be a great equalizer. The influx of international stars like Jokic and Luka Doncic has also made the league’s talent pool as impressive as it’s ever been.
“There’s just a lot of really talented players,” Kerr said. “The style of play with 3-point shooting, with the pace, it’s hard to guard a lot of these players, lot of these teams. There’s a lot of really great coaches in this league. I think the level of play is really high right now.”
Hit-aheads
— Per multiple reports, the initial results of Steph Curry’s ankle injury were better than feared, and he’s not expected to miss significant time. The Warriors have two games against the Spurs and road games in Dallas and Los Angeles upcoming.
The Warriors aren’t alone among the West in dealing with injuries. Timberwolves star Karl-Anthony Towns underwent knee surgery that will sideline him until at least the playoffs, and Suns guard Devin Booker has been out with an ankle sprain. Russell Westbrook has also been unavailable for the Clippers and Memphis’ season was derailed by Ja Morant’s injury (as well as his early suspension).
— Kevon Looney’s impressive Iron Man streak of games played ended on Thursday night when he was left out of the rotation. He logged 290 consecutive games including the playoffs, a stretch that spans back to March 20, 2021.
“We’ve all always said that Loon is the ultimate professional,” Draymond Green said. “Obviously no one wants to see the streak get broken, but the reality is streaks are made to be broken. And whenever his number’s called, you know he’ll be ready.”
— After missing what would have been a game-tying reverse layup late in the Bulls loss, Brandin Podziemski keeled over with his hands on his knees. He later sat alone on the Warriors’ bench for a moment. The rookie has been extremely hard on himself in rare moments of struggle this year, but told Michael Wagaman of NBC Sports Bay Area that he’s not going to dwell on the miss.
“In the NBA you have to (move past it),” Podziemski said. “You look at it, obviously a whole bunch of things contribute to a win or loss, and it’s not just one moment. I know that. I’m just going to look back at what I could have done better throughout the whole course of the game, not just in that moment. I’ll improve on it and be ready for Saturday.”