The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on Twitter/X: — @WilnerHotline.
Please note: Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
Is this the worst year ever for Division I college basketball in California? From UCLA to Cal Poly, it feels like most teams have sucked. — @drewstapes
It’s the worst year in recent memory, for sure, and that reality will become crystal clear next week with the start of March Madness.
As the situation stands on Friday afternoon, only one California team has secured an at-large berth. San Diego State, the national runner-up last season, is a lock for the 68-team field even if it doesn’t win the Mountain West tournament.
If the Aztecs claim the conference title, California will have zero at-large teams.
The central explanation for the Golden State’s black hole is the poor showing by the teams in the Pac-12:
— Stanford staggered to another mediocre season (and fired coach Jerod Haase on Thursday night).
— Cal climbed out of the gutter under Mark Madsen but wasn’t NCAA-worthy.
— USC, which earned at-large bids in each of the previous three years under Andy Enfield, stumbled badly this season.
— And, of course, UCLA floundered. The state’s flagship basketball program entered the season with an overhauled roster and never gained traction.
This isn’t the first time the California quartet has been shut out of March Madness. It happened back in 2019, as well, but at no other point this century.
During a few lean years in Westwood in the early 2000s, Stanford was an NCAA regular. And when the Bruins dipped again in the early 2010s, Cal qualified for the field.
But the quartet wasn’t just shut out, it wasn’t competitive. The teams were eliminated from the at-large pool weeks ago, with only UCLA possessing a glimmer of hope when the regular season’s stretch run began.
It’s worth noting that Saint Mary’s would have been an at-large participant this month but locked down the West Coast Conference’s automatic bid when it defeated Gonzaga in the championship game.
Remove the Pac-12, WCC and Mountain West from the calculation, and there’s nothing left. No other conference with California schools produces teams worthy of at-large bids.
(The woeful collective showing, especially in Los Angeles, could undermine interest in the West regionals, which are scheduled for March 28-30 at Crypto.com Arena.)
We cannot offer a sweeping explanation for the lackluster showing across the state.
It’s poor coaching, sure. But it’s also NIL (name, image and likeness) and the transfer portal and injuries and all the other factors that contribute to subpar seasons.
The difference: All four schools were derailed in the same season.
On a separate-but-related issue, there is commonality: UCLA, USC, Cal and Stanford are headed into more difficult conferences next season.
March 2025 could look a lot like March 2024.
What do you think is the backup plan for the ‘Pac-2’ schools? Their two-year window will eventually end. — @brycetacoma
The NCAA’s grace period, which will allow Washington State and Oregon State to compete as a two-team conference, expires in the summer of 2026. Which means the schools need Plans A, B, C and D well in advance of the ’26 season.
They would love additional realignment to unfold, leading to invitations to join the ACC or Big 12.
Beyond that, the Cougars and Beavers would prefer a shakeup that’s limited to the ACC, forcing Stanford and Cal to reverse course and return to a West Coast-based conference.
Plan C would involve rebuilding the Pac-12 without Stanford and Cal but with teams from the Mountain West and possibly elsewhere (Conference USA or the American). The end result could be a league with as few as eight teams and as many as 12 or 14.
And what of Plan D? If it comes to that, WSU and OSU could request membership in the Mountain West and leave the Pac-12 name and intellectual property to history’s dustbin.
This much is sure: The Cougars and Beavers are accounting for as many scenarios as possible, all while wisely keeping their options open.
I just saw that Cal extended basketball coach Mark Madsen’s contract by two years. What’s your take on the Stanford job? — @WHS1969
Madsen isn’t leaving Berkeley for his alma mater. He probably wouldn’t have made the move before agreeing to the extension and certainly won’t jump now.
Stanford blew it by not firing Jerod Haase last spring and now must canvass the country for a suitable replacement at a somewhat inopportune time.
Yes, the Cardinal is headed into the ACC next season, a move that creates steep competitive challenges during conference play. But that’s not the primary obstacle facing Haase’s successor.
Stanford has been slow to adjust to the changing NCAA landscape, where roster-building is largely based on the transfer portal and NIL resources.
That said, the university’s brand is so strong, and the expectations for success are so low — why else did Haase last eight years? — that a smart search will unearth good candidates.
The question, it seems, is whether Stanford can execute a smart search.
In your opinion, what led to the downfall of Washington coach Mike Hopkins? — @MrEd315
That’s as clear as a bad pass or errant shot: The Huskies never got the scoring piece figured out.
Once Hopkins lost the players inherited from Lorenzo Romar, he was never able to craft an effective offense.
Consider UW’s national ranking in adjusted offensive efficiency, which measures points per 100 possessions (per the Pomeroy advanced metrics).
2020: 112th
2021: 135th
2022: 158th
2023: 165th
2024: 44th
It improved this season, partly because of the addition of Sahvir Wheeler from Kentucky. But that upturn was too little too late, for Hopkins’ fate was sealed: He had to reach the NCAAs to save his job, and the Huskies simply weren’t good enough.
Had the offense been more effective in the post-pandemic seasons, perhaps an NCAA bid would have followed — thus giving Hopkins some cushion to withstand this season’s mediocre showing.
But for most of the decade, UW had no plan and no clue on offense.
Who will be the next Husky basketball coach? — @spencerhawes00
Were the Hotline to bet a nickel on the outcome, our pick would be Utah State coach Danny Sprinkle.
He’s the most likely option, even if that likelihood isn’t on the high side of 50 percent at this stage of the search.
If Sprinkle is the pick, UW fans would have good reason for a shred of optimism heading into the Big Ten. But as we wrote earlier this week, athletic director Troy Dannen should conduct a national search — the job is extremely attractive:
It offers Big Ten security and the Big Ten platform without an array of basketball blue bloods posing intractable competitive obstacles.
How wrong were you when predicting Stanford to upset Washington State in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 tournament? — @Opinion__Peace
Very wrong. Terribly wrong. Egregiously wrong. As wrong as wrong gets.
The Cougars handled Stanford with ease and advanced to the semifinals, where they will duel with Colorado.
That said, my approach to picking games is always the same: You must account for upsets; the trick is identifying the right ones ahead of time.
If I minded being wrong, I wouldn’t bother with the predictions.
What is Oregon and Washington’s agreement with the Big Ten regarding postseason football and basketball revenue? Will they receive a full share, a half share, a fixed amount, or only what they generate themselves? — @Jalex0077
The Hotline has not seen, heard or read anything that indicates the Ducks and Huskies will be excluded from full shares of the Big Ten’s postseason revenue.
But your question offers a chance to remind readers of the various buckets that make up conference revenue distributions. Typically, there are three:
— Broadcast rights to regular-season games and conference championships. (For the Big Ten, those deals are with Fox, CBS and NBC.)
— The College Football Playoff media deal (ESPN)
— The NCAA Tournament media deal (CBS and Turner)
The first bucket is usually where discounted revenue shares are assigned.
Any word yet on how much “the Berkeley Tax” will be? — @Olibbey1
Our advice to UCLA fans infuriated by the UC regents directing the Bruins to subsidize Cal: Prepare for the worst.
The worst, based on policy implemented in December 2022, would be $10 million annually in support.
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Exactly when a final order will be issued — err, when a final decision will be made, we cannot say. The regents work in mysterious, shrouded manners (as much as they proclaim to be a transparent body).
They are scheduled to gather at UCLA next week, but there’s no mention of athletic issues on the agenda.
The delay could be rooted, at least in part, in the leadership changes on both campuses. The regents are expected to select new chancellors for Westwood and Berkeley sometime this spring or summer.
How long before TV totally falls apart? How can the networks really pay these amounts to the Big Ten and SEC? They are dropping more and more subscribers every day. — @WebGuy223
They can continue paying exorbitant fees to broadcast Big Ten and SEC football, just not at an ever-increasing rate.
Cord-cutting will force the networks to be more selective, thus limiting the pot of cash available to the conferences in the next round of media rights negotiations.
But the heavyweight schools in each conference responsible for the bulk of the media dollars — we mean Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, USC, Alabama, Georgia, Texas and Oklahoma — won’t be satisfied with limited increases.
Best guess: They won’t settle for sharing equally with their lower-level conference peers.
But because it’s politically and legally easier to extricate yourself than expel someone else from a conference, the blue-blood schools will opt to break away and form their own super league.
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