With their Super Bowl window open and plenty of roster holes to fill, particularly on defense, the start of free agency was crucial for the 49ers.
Two days in, things are not going well.
The Niners’ performance in the marketplace has been so uninspiring that I’ve had to develop a new mantra, one I repeat to myself with every new acquisition:
“The season doesn’t start for six more months… the season doesn’t start for six more months.”
You might want to try it.
Because as of Tuesday afternoon, the 49ers look to be appreciably worse than they were last year. And while there is plenty of time to change that, the opportunity to add the kind of impact players the Niners needed is dwindling.
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As of the publishing of this column, the 49ers have made four free-agency moves. I’m not bullish on any of them.
And, yes, the Niners’ front office deserves some deference — they have built a pretty successful operation, after all — but it doesn’t mean they’re immune from criticism.
The biggest move the Niners made was adding defensive end Leonard Floyd. In concept, he’ll be the bookend to Nick Bosa on the defensive line.
And if this were 2020, that would be awesome.
But if Floyd is the best the 49ers can do at that position in 2024, I’m not keen on their chances to have a top-five defense next season.
I’ve seen and heard countless bits of praise for Floyd, and he, indeed, deserved that praise for his past play in Chicago and Los Angeles (where he worked with new assistant coach Brandon Staley). He was once one of the finest edge rushers in the game.
But he is not that player anymore.
The Buffalo Bills had no pass rush last season—it was their Achilles heel. Yet the Bills had Floyd, their big offseason pick-up, and he played every game for them in 2023.
Strange, no?
As the season progressed, Floyd (already a situational player for Buffalo) provided less and less impact as a pass rusher. He didn’t register a sack in the team’s final eight games. Three of his 10.5 sacks on the season came in a joke of a game against the Jets. (Zach Wilson started that game for New York.) All the while, Floyd was consistently poor against the run all year.
Watch the Bills’ game against the Chiefs in the playoffs: Floyd was barely on the field and was a non-factor when he was. Sure, he started the game — keeping his six-year streak of starts alive — but he came nowhere close to finishing it. I care more about the latter.
This is the Niners’ big move? Obviously, I’m underwhelmed.
Perhaps the 49ers’ defensive system finds what was once lost. Perhaps he comes to training camp in incredible shape and has juice throughout the season. Maybe Staley is the only coach who can make him the best version of himself. But again, I’m not betting on any of that.
It looks to me as if the Niners panicked and overpaid (two years, $20 million) a player who is over the hill. Then they did it a few more times with other players.
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No, the Niners weren’t done with underwhelming, overpaying moves. They added Yetur Gross-Matos, who will provide some third-down pass rush versatility. He’s athletic and can play both defensive end and tackle on pass-rush downs. And perhaps the defensive line coach can actually teach him how to play those positions with any sort of technique.
Gross-Matos is 26, and he’s still raw. That’s a bit too old to carry that designation. Maybe the Niners can polish their diamond in the rough. Maybe he doesn’t have it.
But the Niners are reportedly betting $9 million on him. That’s a gross overpay for a player who might be situational at best.
The Niners also overpaid safety George Odum, who is strictly a special teams player, seeing as the Niners signed two safeties off the street to play over him at his “true” position last season. Odum reportedly signed a $5 million contract, quadrupling his pay from last season.
Good for Odum. He’s a good role player and a good guy, but why are the Niners flashing cash for a special teams player? These extra millions to Gross-Matos and Odum add up and can prevent the Niners from filling all the holes that remain on the roster.
One such hole is at starting defensive tackle. With the exit of Arik Armstead, the Niners have no reasonable replacement to play alongside Javon Hargrave.
They need a grizzly bear who can hold the middle in the run game.
They agreed to terms with another Javon Kinlaw and will pay him double what Kinlaw reportedly earned from the Jets.
Former Browns defensive tackle Jordan Elliott has some pass-rush burst, sure, but during his entire career with the Browns, he was pushed around in the run game. In fact, he was so poor against the run that before last season, the Browns restructured his rookie contract. You can only do that with players who are afraid they will fall out of the league.
Elliott did have his best season as a professional last year, but that doesn’t make him the kind of player the Niners need up the middle. He’s a Hargrave backup at best. But the Niners will reportedly pay him $5 million to do that job. I can’t imagine there were other serious bidders.
If you’re keeping a tally, that’s four signings and four overpays. I know money is flowing around the NFL following the salary cap spike, but was this the best use of roughly $30 million for San Francisco?
I don’t see it.
There is hope of salvation, though. (And no, it won’t come via the NFL Draft.)
The cornerback free agent market is still dormant. It also has some big-time players available.
If the Niners still have the money and can sign a clear-cut No. 2 corner to play opposite of Charvarius Ward, these uninspiring moves on the defensive line (the supposed foundation of the defense) won’t feel as significant.
But right now they do.
And the Niners’ defense looks to be significantly worse than it was last season.