It’s about time we went back to the mailbag.
In fact, let’s make this a regular occurrence.
If you want a question answered, hit me up via email [dkurtenbach@bayareanewsgroup.com], text [510-479-0932], or whatever the worst people in the world call Twitter these days [@dieter].
Is the 2024 season likely to be the last realistic chance the 49ers have of winning a Super Bowl before they have to deal with salary cap issues? – @giants_niners
» The NFL salary cap is fake, and it will continue to rise at an absurd level for years to come, just like it dramatically rose this season. That’s good news for the Niners — I predict the league will have a $300 million cap well before the next decade.
That said, the Niners’ Super Bowl window has at least two years remaining.
That’s how long Brock Purdy will make less than one-half of one percent of the salary cap. If the 49ers cannot put a championship team around a quality quarterback making that little, then I have a very hard time believing they can win a championship once Purdy is paid.
And while there’s a long time between now and that Purdy contract—a million things could happen—I wouldn’t bet on him taking a hometown discount.
If Purdy really is the second coming of Kirk Cousins, as Kyle Shanahan believes, then the Niners have every reason to be afraid of the hard-ball negotiations that will come their way.
You could do a lot better than Cousins on the field, and you could do a lot worse, too.
But no one secures the bag like Cousins. That’s a great model for Purdy and a possible nightmare for the Niners.
As for the 2024 Niners, the window doesn’t seem as open as it once was.
The salary cap inflation has led to an inflation of free-agent player salaries. Funny how that works. So, while the Niners might have money to spend and plenty of places they need to bolster, every other team has cash to burn, too. That’s why guards are getting $20 million a year and prospect defensive ends can land $50 million contracts.
So, in a way, the salary cap crunch is already here.
We saw that with the Leonard Floyd signing, which I can’t endorse. Now, I have no problem with a middle-class pass rusher — that’s about all the Niners can afford, given the number of holes they need to fill (this team doesn’t have anyone to start next to Javon Hargrave in the middle of the defensive line) — but Floyd was aggressively mediocre with Buffalo last season. He had one sack in his last eight games and was a no-show against the Chiefs in the playoffs. And I thought I was taking crazy pills reading all the praise for his run defense. (It’s fine, at best.)
Perhaps playing opposite Nick Bosa changes things, but as things stand on Monday night, the Niners will rely on rookies to play big roles on defense, which a first-time coordinator now leads. That’s a big red flag to me.
Luckily, they have an excellent quarterback.
How realistic is it that Klay takes a pay cut to stay with the Warriors, and what can they do to bolster their team to win another championship? – @zstrong12
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» The first part is highly realistic.
The second part? Well, that would either require a blockbuster trade or an exceptional offseason in which the Warriors nail every single draft pick (they lack a first-rounder this year, so… probably one) and ace their league-minimum signings. I’d bet the Warriors’ title-contending window is done, but I thought that going into the 2022 playoffs, so don’t follow my advice there.
Let’s circle back to Klay, though. The wing is making $43 million this season. That’s not happening again.
In fact, I think the Warriors should start negotiations at $40 million.
For two years.
Klay has put some nice games together lately and has been a great team player this season, but his best basketball is unquestionably behind him. While the Warriors certainly don’t want to lose one of the most important players in franchise history, they also cannot afford to continue to pay him what he’s making. The NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement is downright vindictive to teams that are luxury tax repeaters, meaning the Warriors need to drop under the tax line either this upcoming offseason or next.
I expect Chris Paul’s to be waived this summer, saving $30 million. But the Warriors would still be roughly $30 million over the tax line (into the second apron) with Thompson at roughly $20 million a season.
The good news for the Warriors is that I doubt Thompson will have a robust free-agency market.
He’s in Draymond Green territory now—valuable to the Warriors for both on- and off-the-court reasons (nostalgia still sells) but not worth the big investment for outside teams.
Ultimately, I think Thompson and the Warriors will do right by each other and find a team-friendly deal that aligns with Steph Curry, Green (who does have a player option in 2026-2027), and Steve Kerr, and run it back for two more years.
How do they get under the luxury tax line after that? Would anyone be interested in a lightly used Andrew Wiggins? He’d be free to a good home.
Which Bay Area pro team gives you the most agita? Or might there be more than one? -@mred315
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» There might!
Let’s break this into two categories:
The first is the team that gives me the most agita (hell of a word) on volume.
That’s the Warriors. My goodness, they are frustrating to watch some nights. Even Monday’s win over the Spurs was two and a half quarters of annoyance. Luckily, they had a nice third quarter to beat San Antonio.
But even with Steph Curry in the lineup, they can be aggravating. Hell, I don’t need to tell any of you that.
But watching every minute of every game of this team all adds up to a few years coming off my life. (Thank goodness I ride a stationary bike during road games.)
Ultimately, though, the most agita per viewing comes from the Sharks.
I still have no idea what that organization’s plan for building a winner is.
Sure, they have Step One down pat: bottom out.
But how do they build it back up?
Forgive my impatience, but I’m seeing the Philadelphia Flyers—a team that started a rebuild around the same time as the Sharks—competing for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.
Meanwhile, the Sharks are still trying to reach lower levels.
The end result is unwatchable hockey. It lacks energy, intrigue, and quality.
And I know it’s going to get worse before it gets better.
Save for the recent Tomas Hertl trade, I haven’t liked any of the trade returns for star players. And while folks I trust say the Sharks have drafted well, I don’t see a game-changer coming to the big leagues anytime soon.
And they need roughly six or seven of them.
All I’m asking for is a moment where I can see a bright future. A spark of future brilliance on the ice. I’m even content to lie to myself about it.
But every time I flip on the Sharks, I watch a miserable team that looks to have no future.
I know things will get better — eventually. At some point, this will reach a nadir, and then there’s only one direction to go.
But this rebuild has been brutal and sometimes illogical, and there’s no guarantee (much less overt promise) that whatever follows this will be worth the wait.
To be clear, I don’t care if the Sharks, Warriors, 49ers, or any other Bay Area team wins or loses. I save those emotions for Mizzou football, Liverpool FC, and the Scottish rugby team.
But I love hockey, and I want people to be happy. I want San Jose’s top professional team to thrive. Heaven knows John Fisher’s Earthquakes aren’t going to create civic pride.
And true Sharks fans and casuals alike deserve better than this dredge.
And I hate that I can’t tell them in good conscience that better is coming.