Gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra has seen a boost in poll numbers and online interest in his campaign this week, following the recent exit of now-former Rep. Eric Swalwell from California’s race for governor.
Despite previous stints as the country’s health and human services secretary and California’s attorney general, Becerra struggled for months to break out of the low single-digits in polls in a crowded gubernatorial contest.
But just days after Swalwell, a leading Democratic candidate who dropped out of the race amid allegations of sexual misconduct and assault (accusations which Swalwell has denied), an Emerson College poll showed overall voter support for Becerra jumped to 10%.
That was enough to tie him for fourth place alongside former Rep. Katie Porter, a fellow Democrat.
Still, that polling showed Republican political commentator Steve Hilton leading the pack at 17%, followed by Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and billionaire environmental advocate Tom Steyer, a Democrat, who both came in at 14%.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former state Controller Betty Yee and California Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, all Democrats, polled at 5% or less.
The surge for Becerra was even more defined when taking into account only Democratic voters.
“In the first Emerson poll since Eric Swalwell’s departure from the race for governor, Democrats now split their vote between Tom Steyer (20%), Xavier Becerra (19%), and Katie Porter (15%), with Becerra gaining 15 points among Democrats without Swalwell on the ballot,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
Becerra wasted no time following the Thursday, April 16, release of the Emerson poll to capitalize on the momentum.
“This race, it’s changed. The field looks different than it did just a few weeks ago. A frontrunner has gone. A frontrunner has come. … We’re looking at new frontrunners,” he said in a video posted to X, which also solicited donations from supporters.
Michael Bustamante, a senior advisor to Becerra, attributed the surge in interest and support for the former Biden administration official to calculated moves to ramp up the campaign’s social media presence and a recent seven-figure, statewide television and digital ad buy — all planned before Swalwell left the race.
Many voters hadn’t yet started paying attention to the race in March, Bustamante said, but the campaign had expected that to change in April.
Then the bombshell allegations against Swalwell came out, leading to his dropping out of the race and, subsequently, resigning from Congress.
“That happened when we had already begun to launch the various elements of the campaign — the social media had amped up, the paid advertisements. All of those things happened at just the right time. So that is part of what we attribute the surge to,” Bustamante said.
And now that voters are paying more attention, Bustamante said, he believes Becerra’s message and experiences will resonate.
Becerra likes to tout that, as California’s attorney general, he sued President Donald Trump‘s first administration more than 120 times and defended the Affordable Care Act from efforts by Republicans to roll it back. He has said that as former President Joe Biden’s health secretary, he expanded health coverage to more Americans.
The recent spike in voter interest for Becerra, 68, has also translated to a surge in financial support from small donors, said Bustamante.
In the last few days alone, he said, the campaign raised over half a million dollars from more than 10,000 small and medium-sized donors, with the average donor contributing $46.
“We didn’t go out and solicit these donations. These came in on their own,” Bustamante said. “This just points to the momentum that Xavier Becerra and the campaign is experiencing. And that momentum continues.”
Although Becerra’s campaign is happy with its recent momentum, he’s not the only candidate who appears to have benefited from Swalwell’s exit.
The California Teachers Association, one of the state’s largest labor unions, recommended Steyer for governor this week, after suspending its previous endorsement of Swalwell. Steyer also picked up several endorsements from former Swalwell supporters, including from Assemblymembers Tasha Boerner, Corey Jackson, Tina McKinnor and Nick Schultz, according to his campaign.
And on Wednesday, Steyer, while at a campaign event, read aloud a social media post by Trump in which the president attacked him. This elicited laughter and applause from the audience.
“Tom Steyer has climbed from the low single digits to leading the Democratic field,” campaign spokesperson Kevin Liao said. “With the California Teachers Association in his corner and the attention of Donald Trump and Elon Musk, Tom now stands as the only Democrat with the grassroots energy, institutional backing and resources to advance to the general election.”
Other candidates also say they see momentum.
Mahan’s campaign released an internal poll this week showing him in third place among the Democratic candidates. The poll, by Impact Research, said the San Jose mayor is growing his vote share while Steyer and Porter had less potential for growth moving forward in the race.
“Our polling confirms what anyone who’s met Mayor Matt already knows: Voters just need to get to know him,” Mahan spokesperson Tasha Dean said Friday. “His working-class background, his proven record of results and his character resonate — because he’s lived the ‘California dream.’ And he’s running to make sure every Californian can, too.”
Back to Basics, a political action committee supporting Mahan, said Tuesday that it launched a $14 million statewide advertising campaign to give the candidate more exposure. That would be in addition to about $6 million that the PAC believed Mahan’s committee had to spend in the Bay Area.
Porter’s campaign on Thursday also announced a major ad blitz — a seven-figure statewide buy across broadcast, cable and digital platforms. Porter also rolled out her first television ad that day.
Calling out Steyer for reportedly spending over $120 million on ads, her campaign said in a news release that Porter remains a top Democratic contender “without spending a dime on advertising until today.”
“She has the highest favorability and name ID of the field and enters the last seven weeks of this race with the strength and momentum needed to win on June 2,” her campaign said.
As the candidates continue to jockey for one of the top two spots in the June primary election so that they can advance to the November runoff, what’s clear is that, for now, the race for governor is still far from decided.
Twenty-three percent of respondents in the Emerson poll had not made up their minds about which candidate to support.
That poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday and has a “credibility interval” — essentially a margin of error — of plus or minus 3%. Registered voters were contacted via email or MMS text-to-web, and questions were asked in English.