In Los Angeles’ political world, the Scarlet Letter that signifies wickedness is an R—which stands for Republican. As in Nathaniel Hawthorne’s 19th-century novel, The Scarlet Letter, a symbol stands for a punitive mark of sin. We are constantly reminded by pundits and partisans the Republican offense is that GOP candidates’ values are out of step with a great majority of L.A. voters.
A Republican candidate, it is said, has less than a snowball’s chance in the summer desert of winning elections in Democratic Los Angeles.
That theory could well be tested in the Los Angeles County District Attorney race come November.
Wait, I hear you protest. There is no Republican in the D.A.’s race. Incumbent George Gascón is a Democrat. While the votes are still being counted the second- place position in the 12 -person field of candidates is Nathan Hochman, registered as an Independent. The top two finishers in the race will contest for the D.A.’s job in November.
But as political consultants are quick to point out, Hochman recently switched from being a registered Republican. In fact, he was the Republican candidate for Attorney General in the last statewide election, defeated with 40.9% of the statewide vote. In Los Angeles County, Hochman didn’t do as well, capturing only 32.6% of the vote.
The Gascón campaign team will be sure to emphasize Hochman’s Republican roots in much the same manner that Adam Schiff’s U.S. Senate campaign tied Steve Garvey to the Republican party in political ads.
As veteran political consultant Michael Trujillo told the Daily News, “He (Hochman) ran his Republican campaign for AG and got his butt kicked and he thinks that L.A. County, a blue county with blue cities in blue Biden territory is somehow going to elect him as our district attorney? That’s crazy.”
Data supports this view given that registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 3 to 1 in Los Angeles County.
So, the D.A. race is already decided months before the voting?
Don’t count on it.
Hochman’s Republican background may be an extra weight he’ll have to wear in the D.A. horse race, but he’s running against a limping steed.
Gascón saw nearly eight out of ten L.A. County voters choose another candidate to be District Attorney in the primary. While the November electorate may be more friendly to Gascón’s politics—younger, a larger percentage of liberal voters—that is still a lot of ground to make up.
Importantly, the issue of security and safety crosses political lines and can easily overwhelm the kneejerk reaction to vote on a candidate based on a party label. Most of Gascón’s opponents in the primary race were Democrats upset with his policies.
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While Los Angeles is certainly a blue corner of the state, there is no more true-blue municipality than San Francisco. Yet, the voters in that city recalled the progressive D.A. last year and, to reduce crime, in the recent primary election passed two measures considered far from progressive: making it less restrictive for police to do their jobs and requiring drug screening for anyone on city welfare.
While Gascón argues that major crime is down, voters see things differently. They get a reminder every day just shopping in pharmacies and retail stores in which they must call a clerk to unlock bolted cases to get the products they desire to purchase.
It is not that a candidate with Republican roots can’t win Los Angeles elections. District 5 County Supervisor Kathryn Barger, a Republican, is overwhelming an experienced Democratic Party endorsed elected official in her bid for another term on the Board of Supervisors in a district in which Democrat registration outnumbers Republican nearly 2 to 1. Los Angeles City Councilman John Lee, a former Republican now registered as an Independent, is apparently having similar success in his re-election bid.
The Los Angeles District Attorney’s race will come down to issues and voter perceptions. Being tagged with a scarlet R is no guarantee on how this particular race will turn out.
Joel Fox is an adjunct professor at Pepperdine University’s Graduate School of Public Policy. Previously, he served as president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association and as editor and co-publisher of the California political and business blog Fox and Hounds Daily.