President Donald Trump’s Tuesday State of the Union largely was aimed at keeping his Make America Great Again base on board. An Economist/YouGov poll from Feb. 13-26 found 93% MAGA backing, an erosion from 95% on Feb. 6-9, but still strong.
The problem is a CNN/SSRS poll for Feb. 17-20 found just 36% overall approval, with 63% disapproval. Other polls showed the same. Trump branded them, “Fake polls.”
The key for Trump is not only keeping MAGA support high, but making sure his supporters show up at the polls on Nov. 3 to back Republican candidates for the House and Senate.
The speech was so long, 1 hour and 48 minutes, many of his elderly MAGA backers might not have lasted without a bio break. But the center of the speech was a celebration of heroic Americans and pushing red meat MAGA issues. He bragged about closing the border. He chided the Supreme Court for overturning his tariffs and promised to impose workarounds. And he attacked the dreaded Democrats.
He insisted the Democrats’ biggest issue of the year, affordability, was caused by Biden’s deficits boosting prices. But he didn’t note the Congressional Budget Office on Feb. 11 projected his fiscal 2026 federal budget deficit will hit $1.85 trillion. And the National Debt Clock pegs today’s federal debt at $38.7 trillion.
He touted how gas prices at the pump under him have dropped below $2 a gallon in many states. That was old data. On Feb. 25, the Auto Club posted the national average at $2.98 and the lowest $2.41 in Oklahoma. In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s anti-Big Oil policies pushed the price to $4.63, the highest in the nation.
Trump’s real problems could come in the future with two crucial MAGA policies he advanced many times in 2024: Full release of the Epstein Files and keeping his campaign pledge of “no more regime-change wars.”
On the files, he was mum at the SOTU. But earlier in the day, Republican nemesis Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Kentucky, stood on the House floor and insisted, “When will we see justice? … I’ve not seen any arrests from the revelations in the Epstein Files, over 3 million documents, describing horrible things, describing unspeakable things, much of it redacted. Over two dozen people have resigned – CEOs, members of government worldwide. But I haven’t seen any arrests or investigations in the United States from this Department of Justice.”
The Epstein Files are going to continue festering not just to the November election, but beyond through the rest of Trump’s term in office.
On war, 13 months ago he promised, “We will measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars that we end – and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.” In his SOTU, he did name eight wars he said he ended. And because no American troops died in the grabbing of President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela, MAGA hasn’t objected.
The problem now is a potential major war with Iran. I’m not predicting what will happen. But it sure looks like Trump is “locked and loaded,” as he said in January, for the ultimate regime-change war against a well-armed country of 90 million. Unless it’s quick, which is unlikely, then MAGA, too, will fade away. He will have little support from anyone.
The Washington Post reported Feb. 23 on a meeting Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, held with Trump and his top aides. “Raising” Caine cautioned, in the Post paraphrase, “any major operation against Iran will face challenges because the U.S. munitions stockpile has been significantly depleted by Washington’s ongoing defense of Israel and support for Ukraine.”
Defence Security Asia reported Feb. 5, the deployment of China’s long-range YLC-8B anti-stealth radar in Iran “signals a strategic shift in Middle Eastern air defense architecture, directly challenging U.S. and Israeli reliance on fifth-generation stealth aircraft.”
This would not be the In!-Bam!-Out! action Trump prefers. It could be protracted with many of our troops – MAGA sons and daughters – coming home in body bags.
John Seiler is on the SCNG Editorial Board