If the U.S. Senate primary race in California were held today, Rep. Adam Schiff and former Dodger Steve Garvey are most likely to advance to the November runoff, an Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics/The Hill poll published Tuesday morning found.
Schiff, D-Burbank, leads the race with 28%, while Garvey is polling at 22%. Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, is third with 16% and Rep. Barbara Lee, D-Oakland, trails with 9%.
A Schiff-Garvey showdown would be the best case scenario for Schiff, who, given the deep-blue political makeup of California, would fight a less expensive and less competitive general election race against Republican Garvey than he would if he were up against a fellow Democrat.
The survey of 1,000 registered voters was done between Feb. 16-18, just a few days out from Tuesday night’s third and final debate between the four leading candidates ahead of the March 5 primary.
Stakes are high for Porter, who has so far failed to secure herself the second place position, although support for Porter increased since January from 13% to 16%.
More than 16% of voters at the time they were surveyed said they are still undecided about who to vote for, according to the poll, most of which are independent voters.
“Porter and Garvey need to find ways to cut into that group,” said Matt Lesenyie, assistant professor of political science at CSU Long Beach.
The poll found that Schiff and Garvey are neck and neck to clinch independents’ vote, Schiff with 23% and Garvey with 22%. Porter, on the other hand, has 15%.
One demographic that leans heavily toward Porter is younger voters. Twenty-three percent of likely voters aged 18-29 said they would vote for Porter if the primary were held today, compared to 9% for Schiff, 14% for Lee and 8% for Garvey.
“(Young voters) are all in on racial inequality and the environment, and so those talks can be on politicians’ lips these days,” Lesenyie said.
Porter on Tuesday released a comprehensive, eight-point climate action plan that outlines how she would protect the environment and strengthen the economy.
The survey also found that just over three in 10 surveyed voters who reported that they have heard, seen or read about last week’s U.S. Senate debate think Schiff won the debate, while 19% said Porter, 18% went for Garvey and 9% said Lee. Notably, 21% said they think no candidate won the debate.
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