The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday said that the 2024 hurricane season has an 85% chance of being above normal, forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms, and of those, eight to 13 are expected to become hurricanes.
These numbers are the “highest ever” that NOAA has issued for its May outlook.
An infographic shows the hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted from NOAA’s 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. (NOAA/courtesy)
NOAA is calling for:
— 17 to 25 named storms with minimum sustained winds of 39 mph. The average is 14.
— Eight to 13 hurricanes with sustained wind speeds of at least 74 mph. The average year has seven.
— Four to seven major hurricanes with sustained winds over 111 mph. The average is three.
Many hurricanes never make landfall. Of the seven Atlantic hurricanes in 2023, only one, Idalia, made landfall in the U.S.
“Of note, the forecast for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes is the highest that NOAA has ever issued for the May outlook,” NOAA Administrator Richard Spinrad said.
A graphic shows the list of the 2024 Atlantic tropical cyclone names, as selected by the World Meteorological Organization. The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. (NOAA/courtesy)
Forecasters say that the record-warm water temperatures that now cover much of the Atlantic Ocean will continue into peak hurricane season from August to October. That warm water fuels hurricanes.
Forecasters also said there’s a 77% chance of La Niña forming from August through October, which will reduce wind shear, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Basin. Wind shear can topple even the strongest storms.
Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, said a theme for this year was that risk is “about the impact, not the category.”
He said that when the NWS looked at 2013-2023 hurricane fatalities they found that 90% result from water. A significant amount of those were from people drowning in their automobiles, said Graham, and storm surge caused 41 fatalities during Hurricane Ian.
Graham also warned about how quickly storms can strengthen. “Every Category 5 storm that made landfall in the last 100 years was a tropical storm or less three days prior.”
Hurricane Idalia, which pummeled Florida’s Big Bend region last September, jumped from a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph to an enraged Category 4 hurricane with wind speeds of 130 mph in a period of just over 24 hours. The storm took just 12 hours to ramp from Category 1 to Category 3. And once the system became a hurricane, it only took a day for it to race across the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall about 55 miles north of Cedar Key.
The National Hurricane Center dubs any storm that gains 35 mph or more of maximum sustained wind speed in a 24-hour period as “rapidly intensifying.” Idalia gained 50 mph in that timeframe.
Graham said “all of the ingredients are definitely in place for us to have an active season. What goes into this forecast? It’s all coming together — you combine factors to get a forecast like this. You have warm energy in the oceans. You have an active African Monsoon. We don’t expect a whole lot of shear. … It takes all these ingredients to come up with a forecast like this.”