When President Trump signed the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran in June, he believed he had closed the book on his most dangerous political vulnerability and cemented his legacy.
Two months later, Trump is learning that Machiavelli’s observation that wars begin when you want, but do not end when you please, remains just as true today as it was in the Renaissance.
Indeed, not only does the political vulnerability remain wide open, but it also now threatens to define the midterms – and his presidency – on the one issue he can least afford to lose: the economy.
To that end, while there were justifiable reasons for launching the war, Trump’s handling of it is putting Republicans in an ever-worsening position.
Nearly six months into a war Trump pledged would be over in weeks, the cost of energy remains stubbornly high, and there’s no end in sight to the drag on American wallets.
Iran’s effective control of the Strait of Hormuz has choked global energy supplies, again pushing average gas prices in the U.S. above $4 per gallon.
The current average is nearly a full dollar higher than one year ago according to AAA and well above the $2.92 the week before the war began.
Worse still, gas exceeds $4 in over 20 states, including midterm battlegrounds Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Alaska, all rated tossups by Cook Political Report.
In Michigan, where Republican Mike Rogers has a real shot to beat progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, prices at the pump sit at roughly $4.25, a visible tax on the Independents Rogers needs to win.
To be sure, the political and economic consequences extend beyond the straightforward impact of rising gas prices.
July’s Consumer Price Index showed inflation cooling to 3.4%, the second straight monthly deceleration, a point administration officials have seized on to argue that the war’s inflationary bite has been contained.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett touted June’s report as “the best inflation report” he’s ever seen – a point he echoed again in August to CNBC.
Then, wholesale inflation for July was released, showing it unchanged and below expectations, another positive.
Yet that reading misses why the war is likely to be such a problem for Republicans in November.
Trump’s approval ratings appear to move inversely to the price of oil, as a Marquette Law School poll suggested, which the school’s director later reaffirmed.
In July’s survey, after gas prices had fallen to roughly $3.80, Trump’s approval rating increased to 40%, ending a streak of declining approval going back to January in their polls.
However, that trend is now stalling or reversing as the U.S. blockade was reimposed and Hormuz was shut again.
According to RealClearPolitics, Trump’s average approval rating sits at 39%, though on key issues, he is weaker.
On the economy and inflation, just 33% and 29%, respectively, approve, while a majority (56%) say the economy is getting worse, per Economist/YouGov polling.
In Trump’s defense, by some measures the economy actually is stronger than people feel. The S&P 500 has hit new record highs over 60 times since his second inauguration, and while the market is not the economy, it’s the most visible indicator.
Unfortunately for Republicans, if the stock market is one of the most visible, gas prices are more visible and more widely felt, and even oil’s marked decline from above $100/barrel may not be enough.
Also, as former President Joe Biden learned, a booming stock market does not mitigate growing pessimism over people’s personal economic situation, precisely what voters blame Trump for.
Further, evidence is emerging suggesting that all Republicans are being impacted.
According to an analysis in the Wall Street Journal, “For the first time since 2010, Fox News polls find voters citing Democrats as better on the economy than Republicans.”
Democrats’ lead in Fox’s April and July surveys, 4- and 9-points, respectively, is not as large as Republicans’ 13-point advantage in February 2022, though Democrats’ momentum comes at a dangerous time, with just months before midterms.
In fact, economists have already begun warning that higher energy costs will filter through the rest of the economy, making a big impact on food prices this fall, just as voters head to the polls.
On a macro-level, upward pressure on gas prices makes it impossible for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh to lower interest rates, a decision that would ease financial burdens for tens of millions of Americans.
As a result, borrowing costs will remain high for cars, credit cards, and homes – a key component of Democrats’ affordability message.
Finally, while the economy is voters’ top concern, there are geopolitical impacts. Trump’s oft-repeated claims of Iran’s desperation contradict what Americans see on the ground.
The war’s top goal has apparently become opening Hormuz – which was open before the war – and not Iran’s nuclear program, which was a legitimate reason to attack.
Were Trump to end the war on terms that make the U.S. less safe, appear defeated, and the military seem impotent, voters will surely punish Republicans, as Biden learned following Afghanistan.
To be clear, this does not guarantee a Democratic wave.
Democrats remain unpopular, are fielding a slate of socialist or socialist-leaning candidates, and the Senate map still tilts towards Republicans.
Similarly, Democrats’ 6-point lead on the generic ballot is a modest advantage that, rather than implying a landslide, suggests that frustration with Trump is not translating into affection for the opposition.
That being said, at their core, midterms are referendums on the President, and Trump has given voters a referendum on an unpopular war with no clear strategy to end and an economy he is unlikely to fix by election day.
Ultimately, the Iran war was meant to be the crowning achievement of Trump’s second term. He was going to redraw the Middle East to benefit America and our allies, permanently defang Iran, end their nuclear program, solving a problem that has bedeviled multiple administrations.
Instead, it may be the decision that costs Republicans one or both chambers of Congress, hobbled Trump’s final years in the White House, and defined his legacy in a way he surely did not hope for.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.