After 45 years of increasingly bellicose rhetoric, Iran launched an unprecedented, and historically large, direct attack on Israel, marking an expansion of the shadow war – or “war between wars” as Israel calls it – that until now, had largely been confined to Lebanon, Syria, or covert operations.
Last weekend, more than 300 Iranian drones, cruise, and ballistic missiles were fired at the Jewish State, and while 99% of them were intercepted prior to reaching Israeli airspace, Israel is facing a serious challenge to its sovereignty, and this conflict is far from over.
For that reason, President Biden’s advice that Israel “take the win” and not hit back despite largely defeating Iran’s attack is a complete non-starter. No country in the world would take such a step.
Israel knows it must respond in order to restore deterrence and make it clear to Tehran – and its proxies – that it cannot attack Israel with impunity, especially in light of Iran’s declaration that it may review its “nuclear doctrine” which so far has forbid developing nuclear weapons, and its vow to target Israel’s own nuclear sites in a possible counterattack.
That said, Israel also knows it must do so strategically to avoid giving Iran a reason to escalate further and possibly ignite a full-blown regional war, because next time, Israel may not be so lucky.
There was absolutely no guarantee that Israel’s missile defense systems would perform so impressively, nor was it certain that the U.S., U.K., and other countries, particularly Jordan and Saudi Arabia, would have been able – or willing – to come to Israel’s aid the way they did.
Moreover, Israelis cannot take for granted that they will ever have the same level of international help, not after witnessing global public opinion turn against their country within days of October 7th when Israel suffered the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust.
To that end, the world is now collectively holding its breath as Israel decides its response, and how whether they will forewarn the Biden administration, which played a vital role in shooting down dozens of Iranian drones and missiles, but has said they will not support an Israeli retaliatory strike, and has dealt with allegations of having Iranian agents of influence at the highest levels of the State and Defense Departments.
What then, will Israel likely do in response, and how should the Biden administration react?
First, Israel understands that it must walk an incredibly thin line: If the response is too light, Iran will be emboldened to attack again. But if Israel’s retaliation is too severe, the likelihood of a full-blown war will escalate drastically.
In that same vein, the White House, concerned what a full-scale war between Israel and Iran would have on Biden’s reelection chances, is urging restraint.
Interestingly, if reports are correct, Israel and the U.S. may have reached an understanding whereby Israel agreed to significantly temper its retaliation in exchange for the Biden administration greenlighting an expansion of Israel’s military campaign against Hamas into Rafah, the last major city in Gaza where the remaining Hamas battalions and its senior leadership are hiding, along with any Israeli hostages.
While that would be a remarkable geopolitical win for Israel, it still would not negate the need to send a message to the Mullah’s in Tehran.
As such, there are four likely targets Israel will seek to hit: Iranian nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure, bases belonging to the Revolutionary Guards Corps or its elite Quds Force, or Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah.
Israel and Hezbollah have been sparring across both country’s border since October 8th, and despite Hezbollah losing roughly 300 fighters, the terrorist group still has roughly 150,000 missiles and is so close to Israel that the latter’s vaunted missile defense system would not be nearly as effective as it was against Iran’s attack.
Therefore, it would seem that attacks on Iranian nuclear or energy infrastructure, or on Iranian military bases are the most logical target, although how Israel goes about this is as important as where.
A large-scale aerial bombing of targets in Iran would make a large war almost inevitable, as Iran would have no choice but to respond, either with renewed attacks, or by accelerating its nuclear program, which in turn, would invite even larger strikes by Israel and possibly the U.S., as Biden has said he would not be the president who allows the marriage of nuclear weapons with a radical Islamic regime.
And, while it is worth noting that Israel has experience with airstrikes on nuclear targets – Iraq’s in 1981 and Syria’s in 2007 – this would be the most consequential mission ever carried out by the Israel Defense Forces, and would almost certainly spark a war.
More importantly, such a strike would ruin any international goodwill Israel has thus far earned by restraining itself. So, Israel’s retaliation, more likely than not, will come via Mossad, Israel’s covert intelligence service, which has repeatedly proven able to strike inside Iran, both at sensitive targets and at high-ranking individuals.
To that point, regardless of how Israel chooses to respond, it is imperative that the Biden administration stand by its ally. While the U.S. and Israel have been at odds over the war in Gaza, Iran is an existential threat to Israel, and whatever problems Biden has with Netanyahu cannot weaken America’s resolve to stand by our closest ally in the Middle East.
Whether or not Biden has the strength to continue bucking the left-wing of his own party, which has been demanding he withdraw all support for Israel – including the 13 Democratic House members who voted against condemning Iran’s attack – in the face of a full-blown war remains to be seen.
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But, the one thing that is clear is that much like 1981 and 2007, if Israel did strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities, they would likely be doing the United States a favor; imagine if Sadaam Hussein had nuclear weapons before the Gulf War or Invasion of Iraq, or if Syria was able to acquire nuclear bombs before disintegrating.
Biden must stand with Israel against enemies who violently oppose the values both of our countries stand for.
Ultimately, those who call for Israel to show restraint have shown little understanding of a country whose national ethos revolves around Natan Alterman’s description of two battle-weary youth presenting themselves as “the silver platter on which the Jewish State was given.”
Put another way, calls for Israel to “take the win” will fall on deaf ears . The Biden administration would be better served, geopolitically, and in terms of how we defend our own values, by offering Israel our full-throated support, committing to building on the relationship between Israel and moderate Arab countries that leapt to Israel’s defense, and letting our allies know we stand with them against our common enemies.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant. Saul Mangel is a senior strategist at Schoen Cooperman Research.