Horses vying to qualify for the Kentucky Derby have more than usual to prove in the upcoming three Saturdays of major, pivotal, final preps for the May 4 classic.
It’s natural for fans to measure this year’s prospects not only against one another but also against the Bob Baffert-trained horses who aren’t eligible for the Derby. How many of the 3-year-olds in the 20-stall Churchill Downs starting gate will be as good as the ones who are ruled out? Will the field, the eventual winner and the prestige of America’s most famous thoroughbred race be diminished by the absences?
Those are questions to consider in due time, but for now they’re a distraction for handicappers trying to narrow the dozens of horses still in the running for the Derby down to a bettable few.
We’ll learn a lot by watching eight races over the next three weekends, capped by the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on April 6, whose qualifying points mean virtually automatic Kentucky Derby qualification for horses finishing first (100 points) or second (50) or even third (25), fourth (15) and fifth (10) if they came in with enough points.
Here’s what we think we know as the road to the Derby turns for home.
The favorites: If the Derby were now, the favorite would come from among Risen Star winner Sierra Leone (trained by Chad Brown, 7-1 in Derby future betting last week), Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, 9-1), Timberlake (Brad Cox, 12-1) and Dornoch (Danny Gargan, 13-1). The quality of their stakes victories, speed figures, pedigrees, running styles and connections check a lot of boxes, Dornoch more than any. All four must move forward in their second races of 2024.
In the field: Four horses, in addition to the four above, already have the 40-plus points it normally takes to qualify for the Derby: Deterministic (Christophe Clement, 16-1), Track Phantom (Steve Asmussen, 23-1), Domestic Product (Brown, 33-1) and No More Time (Jose D’Angelo, 144-1). Each needs a breakout performance to stamp him as a contender to win on the first Saturday in May.
Moving up: On my spreadsheet of Triple Crown contenders, another dozen horses show enough positive signs to be respected if they qualify: Japan-based Forever Young (Yoshito Yahagi, 12-1), undefeated but untested Hades (Joe Orseno, 20-1) and Tuscan Sky (Pletcher, 36-1), and Conquest Warrior (Shug McGaughey, 16-1), Mystic Dan (Ken McPeek, 16-1), Catching Freedom (Cox, 26-1), Just a Touch (Cox, 31-1), Honor Marie (Whit Beckman, 35-1), Hall of Fame (Asmussen, 37-1) Liberal Arts (Robert Medina, 45-1), Endlessly (Michael McCarthy, 59-1) and Common Defense (McPeek, 62-1).
Preps to watch: The big horses are targeting the March 30 Arkansas Derby (Timberlake, Mystic Dan), Florida Derby (Fierceness, Conquest Warrior, Hades, maybe Dornoch) and UAE Derby (Forever Young), and the April 6 Blue Grass Stakes (Sierra Leone, perhaps Dornoch) and Wood Memorial (Deterministic). The April 6 Santa Anita Derby could attract eastern-based Just a Touch to face local horses, including Baffert horses.
This Saturday’s Louisiana Derby, at 1 3/16 miles the longest test before the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby, might provide a line on Sierra Leone vs. Timberlake even though neither is in this race. It features Track Phantom and Catching Freedom, who were close behind Sierra Leone in the Risen Star, and Common Defense, second to Timberlake in the Rebel. It’s the last chance for Hall of Fame after his poor Risen Star.
Saturday’s Jeff Ruby Steaks, in Kentucky, is a soft spot for Endlessly and jockey Umberto Rispoli to emerge as California’s best Derby hope. Endlessly won two turf stakes at Del Mar and the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields.
Places to watch: New York is winning the old East-West rivalry; it was the springboard for Sierra Leone, Timberlake, Dornock and Fierceness. California’s best Kentucky Derby-eligible horses have been Stronghold (Phil D’Amato, 48-1) and Endlessly, along with Scatify (John Sadler) and Mc Vay (John Shirreffs), neither deemed worthy of inclusion in the 39-horse Derby future bet.
People to watch: The strongest stables of Derby candidates belong to Chad Brown, the top current U.S. trainer who hasn’t won the Kentucky Derby, and Todd Pletcher and Brad Cox. A sentimental favorite is D. Wayne Lukas, the 88-year-old great who seeks a fifth Derby victory with Seize the Grey (33-1) and Just Steel (137-1).
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The Baffert factor: If Baffert’s horses were eligible, 3-for-3 Nysos would have been the early Derby favorite (before Baffert recently declared him out of training for 30 days). Muth, second to Fierceness in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, would be a top-shelf contender. San Felipe Stakes winner Imagination and runner-up Wine Me Up already would have enough points to qualify. And Maymun and Wystock would be looming.
They’re out because Churchill Downs, which suspended six-time Derby winner Baffert after Medina Spirit’s 2021 disqualification for a medication violation, extended his ban to a third year and horse owners decided not to move their 3-year-olds to other trainers this time.
Whether the Baffert horses are forgotten on Derby afternoon, or cause a mental asterisk to be placed on the 2024 Derby, will be determined in part by how good the contenders look on the next three weekends.
Follow Kevin Modesti on Twitter (formerly X) @Kevin Modesti.