As Santa Anita prepares for the biggest race of its winter-spring season, the Santa Anita Derby a week from Saturday, there’s good news and bad news.
The good news is that horses don’t read the bad news.
Undeterred by the burdens of us mere bipeds, an intriguing field of 3-year-olds will venture out of their stalls for the $750,000, Grade I race April 6.
Nominations will be revealed Friday and the field will be set Wednesday. Trainer Bob Baffert is expected to choose two or three horses from among Imagination, Maymun, Wine Me Up, Wynstock and Coach Prime; he said Thursday he’ll know who he’s running closer to entry time. Trainer Phil D’Amato confirmed Thursday that Stronghold will run, after considering going to the Blue Grass Stakes in Kentucky. Reported possibilities include Mc Vay, Tapalo, EJ Won the Cup and Tessuto.
For various reasons, it’s less likely fans will see the winner of the May 4 Kentucky Derby in the Santa Anita Derby than in one of the other major Triple Crown preps being run this Saturday and next at tracks in the United States and Dubai.
With clouds hanging over Santa Anita racing these days, it sure doesn’t feel like a year California horses and fans will enjoy Kentucky Derby glory.
There are actual clouds. Santa Anita officials announced Thursday morning that predictions for more rain have forced cancelation of races this Saturday and Sunday; they’ll be made up with an extra card Thursday, April 4, and extra races the following three days.
There are economic clouds. Santa Anita executives paint a dark picture of the future after the California Horse Racing Board disdained their warnings and voted 6-0 last week to award autumn racing dates to Pleasanton, in Northern California’s East Bay, denying Southern California tracks a revenue haul from simulcast betting.
And there are clouds of controversy. Horses from Baffert’s barn, which has produced six Kentucky Derby winners and two Triple Crown winners, are ineligible for the Derby because of the eccentric decision by Churchill Downs to add a third year to his ban over Medina Spirit’s 2021 disqualification and the decision by Baffert and owners not to transfer top young horses to other trainers this year.
Baffert’s top 3-year-old, undefeated Nysos, is sidelined. But his top active 3-year-old, Muth, second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November before winning the San Vicente Stakes in January, is the 8-5 morning-line favorite (against 9-5 Timberlake) in the Arkansas Derby this Saturday. His Santa Anita Derby prospects all have top-class potential, which under the circumstances means they’re vying to be contenders for the May 18 Preakness and June 8 Belmont Stakes.
The top local candidate for the Kentucky Derby looks to be Stronghold, who won the Sunland (N.M.) Derby with jockey Antonio Fresu after finishing second to Wynstock in the Los Alamitos Futurity. Stronghold rated 20th (at 48-1 odds) in the round of Kentucky Derby future betting that closed March 17, and heisn’t in the top 20 in the National Thoroughbred Racing Association’s weekly 3-year-old rankings. California partisans will root for the son of Ghostzapper to grab the nation’s attention in the Santa Anita Derby.
Weirder things have happened. Horses and horseplayers have a way of shrugging off circumstances.
On a grand scale, there was Secretariat emerging in the era of Vietnam, Watergate and gas lines to complete the first Triple Crown sweep in 25 years and be one thing Americans could agree upon. And Santa Anita running hours after the January 1994 Northridge earthquake, and Fairplex Park and other U.S. tracks making racing the first sport to resume after 9/11 by running two days later.
More on the nose, there was what came after Southern California racing was hit by the closure of Hollywood Park in late 2013 and the announcement of Fairplex’s demise in early 2014: In those ashes, a colt named American Pharoah was stirring, growing into the 2015 Triple Crown winner. And there was the year I think of now.
In 2005, California racing and horses were under fire. Hollywood Park had been all but officially put up for sale, the beginning of the end. Three high-profile California trainers faced “milkshake” doping allegations. A winter of rain had interrupted training for the state’s Derby hopefuls. West Coast horses were dismissed with odds of 20-1 to 50-1 on the Derby morning line. Typical was a colt named Giacomo, who went to the Derby on a five-race losing streak.
“The Golden State needs a (Kentucky) Derby win,” I wrote from Louisville.
History students will know that Giacomo, whose workout schedule had luckily avoided the rain, won that Kentucky Derby with jockey Mike Smith and paid $102.60, while three other Santa Anita Derby graduates ran fourth, fifth and sixth.
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Smith said afterward that Giacomo’s fourth-place finish behind winner Buzzards Bay in the Santa Anita Derby had been misleading because a slow early pace defused his explosive late kick.
In 2005, it all seemed unlikely until it happened.
In 2024, it all seems unlikely, and could it happen again?
The possibility is something to think about as Santa Anita Derby week arrives.
The Golden State needs a Kentucky Derby contender.
Follow Kevin Modesti on Twitter (formerly X) @Kevin Modesti.