After several days of ballot counting, a picture is emerging of which L.A. City Council candidates appear to have won their races and which ones likely will be forced into a runoff election.
Although votes are still being counted and the results of the primary election won’t be official until after the Los Angeles County registrar’s office certifies them later this month, three incumbents have already declared victory – Councilmembers Imelda Padilla in District 6, Marqueece Harris-Dawson in District 8 and John Lee in District 12.
See the latest election results
Candidates must receive over 50% of the vote to win outright and avoid a runoff. Otherwise, the top two finishers in each race will face off in the Nov. 5 general election.
We spoke with political experts this week about the three remaining races in which the incumbents could be headed for a runoff in Districts 4, 10 and 14.
The District 2 race is expected to be in a runoff as well, but neither of the top two vote-getters are an incumbent. They’re vying for the seat of Council President Paul Krekorian, who is termed out of office after winning the seat in 2009.
District 4
Incumbent Nithya Raman saw her lead over Deputy City Attorney Ethan Weaver grow but was still short of the majority needed to avoid a runoff, based on the latest vote count by the registrar’s office. As of Friday afternoon, Raman had 47.56%, Weaver had 40.99% and software engineer Levon Baronian had 11.45%.
Outside special interest groups hoping to influence the outcome of the election poured more money into District 4 than other L.A. council races in the primary. Of the approximately $1.8 million in total spending by independent expenditure committees, about $1.4 million, or roughly 77%, went toward ads and other efforts to support Weaver or to oppose Raman.
Some of Raman’s biggest critics, including the city’s police and firefighters unions, disagree with her approach to tackling homelessness, including her opposition to 41.18, the city’s anti-camping law that prohibits homeless encampments near schools, parks and other “sensitive” areas.
Sara Sadhwani, an assistant professor of politics at Pomona College, said that when Raman was elected four years ago, she ran on a platform that focused on progressive reform, and she was the first L.A. City Council candidate endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America to win office.
But after City Council maps were redrawn in 2021 as a result of redistricting, Raman lost about 40% of her original constituents. The councilmember’s reshaped district – which stretches from Sherman Oaks, Encino and Van Nuys to the Hollywood Hills, Los Feliz and Silver Lake – now includes part of the San Fernando Valley, where voters are more conservative, Sadhwani said.
“Certainly there has been a big backlash to the kinds of policies (Raman) has represented in terms of tenant rights and homelessness,” Sadhwani said. “In addition, her district changed significantly. … So of course this is a real litmus test of just how far to the left Los Angeles voters really want to continue to go.”
Brian VanRiper, a political consultant who has worked on past L.A. City Council races but was not involved in this year’s primary contests, said that some political observers believe Raman may have the advantage in a November runoff.
“One theory I’ve heard that makes sense to me is a higher Democratic turnout in November would benefit Raman,” he said.
District 10
Appointed incumbent Heather Hutt was leading on Friday with 38.29% of the vote, while Grace Yoo, a community advocate and former city commissioner, remained in second place with 25.24%.
Even though Hutt entered the race as an incumbent, Sadhwani noted that it was Hutt’s first time to appear on a ballot. Hutt was appointed last April to serve out the remainder of Councilmember Mark Ridley-Thomas’ term after he was convicted in a federal bribery case.
“It always takes voters some time to get to know candidates. Even though she was the incumbent, she was appointed,” Sadhwani said.
Neither Sadhwani nor VanRiper seemed surprised by Yoo’s second-place standing.
Through Feb. 28, Yoo’s campaign spent more than any of the other four candidates in the race, according to campaign filings with the city.
And Yoo, who is active in the Korean American community, may have benefited from the consolidation of all Koreatown voters into Council District 10 after the 2021 redistricting. Sadhwani, who specializes in Asian American and Latino voting patterns, said it’s conceivable that Yoo consolidated support from Korean Americans.
VanRiper also noted that Yoo may have benefited from having run in the past. Yoo also came in second in the primary in 2020 before losing to Ridley-Thomas in the general election.
District 10 represents a swath of L.A. stretching from Koreatown and Mid-City in Central Los Angeles to Baldwin Hills, the Crenshaw District and Leimert Park in South L.A.
District 14
In one of the most closely watched L.A. City Council races, Councilmember Kevin de León – seeking redemption after being caught up in a racist audio leak scandal in the fall of 2022 – was atop the leaderboard in the eight-person contest for the District 14 seat.
It appeared that he would advance to the runoff against either tenant rights attorney Ysabel Jurado or Assemblymember Miguel Santiago. As of Friday afternoon, de León had 25.34%, Jurado had 21.51% and Santiago had 21.42% – with a mere 21 votes separating the latter two. Assemblymember Wendy Carrillo had 15.31%.
On election night, de León’s campaign issued a press release saying the incumbent “defies expectations” by leading in the vote count.
But it was no surprise to Sadhwani. The Pomona College professor said that after the racist audio leak scandal, many were quick to “cancel” the Latino leaders involved in the backroom conversation “without ever bothering to ask Latino constituents of Council District 14 their perspective on it.” She called that a “gross miscalculation.”
“Kevin de León has represented many of these neighborhoods for years,” Sadhwani said. “It is not a surprise to me that he has a strong and consistent level of support — albeit diminished for sure.”
VanRiper believes de León will be vulnerable in November, assuming he is in the runoff.
While de León was leading with 25.34% on Friday, three-quarters of voters cast ballots for someone else.
“This race is a referendum on Kevin de León and his behavior over the last couple years,” VanRiper said. He said getting in the mid-20% range in the primary “probably means ‘dead in the water’” in the general election.
At the same time, both VanRiper and Sadhwani said how the embattled de León does in the runoff will depend on who he’s up against.
Santiago’s political background is similar to de León’s, with both having served in the state Legislature, and they share similar politics. But Santiago entered this race without being associated with a major scandal and has strong union support.
Jurado is considered more progressive and was endorsed by the L.A. chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA).
“(Santiago) is an easy choice for Democratic parties, traditional (voters),” VanRiper said. “(Jurado), I understand, is more on the DSA flank. I think people will have a little bit of hesitation there.”
Sadhwani said if Jurado advances, voters in District 14 – just like those in District 4 in the Raman versus Weaver race – will have to decide if they want a socialist-backed councilmember.
“There will be some voters in CD14 that will never vote for de León again, but I think the kinds of resources that Santiago or Jurado would bring to a runoff election would be quite different — and the choice for voters would be quite different,” Sadhwani said.
District 14 represents much of downtown L.A. as well as Boyle Heights, Lincoln Heights, El Sereno and Northeast L.A.
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