Despite an economic recovery which has far outpaced the rest of the world, President Biden has consistently struggled to make the case to voters that, by virtually every metric, the economy is booming.
Indeed, in spite of a robust job market, inflation that is steadily slowing down, and the U.S. having so far avoided a recession many deemed “inevitable,” Biden’s approval on the economy has been stuck underwater at just 40% per RealClearPolitics polling average.
Worse, by an 11-point margin (42% to 31%), Americans trust Donald Trump – rather than Biden – to handle the economy according to a separate poll by the Financial Times.
However, there are signs that this narrative is beginning to change, as voters’ perceptions of the economy are improving, as is their tendency to give Biden credit for the state of the economy, potentially handing Biden a much-needed polling boost with just seven months until the election.
To that point, the most recent CNBC All-America Economic Survey underscores just how important a brightening economic outlook is for Biden’s chances in November.
The poll showed Biden virtually tied with Trump (45% to 46%) in a presidential contest, a significant improvement for the president from December’s poll, which showed Trump with a 6-point lead, 48% to 42%.
As for what is behind Biden’s boost, the CNBC survey showed Biden’s approval on the economy rising from 33% to 37% from December through March, and while that is still dismal, the trend is clearly going in the president’s favor.
In that same vein, the share of Americans who believe the economy is improving (33%) hit the highest levels of Biden’s entire presidency, per a new Suffolk poll.
To be clear, while the CNBC and Suffolk numbers are not independently impressive, when taken together, they do indicate that there is improving sentiment towards the economy, and most importantly for Biden, that he is finally seeing the benefit of that rising optimism, which he had not until now.
Just three weeks before the CNBC survey was released, an article in the New York Times pointed out that while Americans’ views on the economy were improving, Biden was not seeing a concurrent rise in the polls.
That now appears to be changing, marking a reversal in what has been, according to the Times article, “A persistent trend that has confounded pollsters and economists” wherein the economy continues demonstrating its resilience but Americans either don’t recognize it or don’t credit the president.
It is worth noting that Jessica Tarlov, writing for Fox News, noted that Biden’s improving situation began with Biden’s State of The Union speech, including pointing out that there have now been “12 national polls since SOTU that have Biden leading Trump and, for the first time in seven months, Biden was up one in the Economist polling average.”
And, while Tarlov largely focuses on the bigger picture, citing Biden’s general increase in energy and public appearances – in comparison to Trump’s time largely spent in courtrooms and Florida – as opposed to the economy specifically, the paramount importance of the economy to voters means Biden would not be seeing this polling bounce without improvement in the economy as well.
To that end, if these latest polls truly do mark a turning point, the moderation of economic sentiment has potentially critical implications for the 2024 election, given the importance of the economy in voters’ minds, and how much poor economic ratings have hampered Biden’s reelection bid, despite an intensive effort to convince voters of the benefits of ‘Bidenomics.’
Put another way, if these opinions continue moving in Biden’s direction, he should tentatively see a bounce, given the importance of the economy, the role it has played in anti-Biden attacks, and the general tendency of voters to hold the president singularly responsible for the economy, good or bad.
Moreover, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates this summer amid easing inflation, public perception over Biden’s handling of the economy could begin to improve just as the campaign is heating up. In turn, it is likely his standing in the polls will also improve, painting a rosier picture for Democrats in a tight race to keep the White House.
This is not to say Biden’s path is an easy one – he still faces an uphill battle if he wants to defeat Donald Trump. When compared to Trump on specific economic issues, Biden trails Trump on handling of the stock market (-33%), taxes (-32%), inflation (-27%), and to a smaller extent, the “well-being of the middle class” (-5%), according to the CNBC survey.
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Further, a plurality (39%) of Americans say their personal economic situation would be better under Trump, compared to less than one-quarter (23%) of Americans – including just 12% of Independents – who say the same about a Biden victory.
Of course, while the economy is always one of the most important issues, it is not the only issue. As bad as Biden’s approval on the economy is, his RCP average approval on immigration (32%), inflation (36%), crime (37%), and foreign policy (37%) are all worse, and there is growing discontent in the left-wing of Biden’s own party over his support for Israel. In an election that figures to be incredibly close, any of those issues issues could be enough to swing the race to Trump.
And while it remains to be seen whether opinions of the economy will continue improving in Biden’s favor, there is a lot of time between now and the election, and right now at least, it appears that with negative views moderating – and Biden being credited – what had been a significant headwind for the president may well turn into a tailwind as we approach November’s general election.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.