The most important consequence of Abdul El-Sayed’s closer-than-expected win in Michigan’s Senate primary has nothing to do with El-Sayed – or whether he beats Republican Mike Rogers in November.
Indeed, it is what his victory, and Francesca Hong’s likely victory in Wisconsin’s gubernatorial primary on August 11th does to the Democrat with the most to lose from the far left’s increasing grip on the Democratic Party: Gov. Gavin Newsom.
For the last year, the conventional wisdom about progressive and Democratic Socialist candidates – or those affiliated with the DSA – was that they could only win in deep-blue pockets like New York City.
Now, that argument is beginning to crumble.
First, El-Sayed, a progressive backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeated establishment favorite Rep. Haley Stevens in Michigan’s Democratic primary for Senate.
True, El-Sayed did not win the landslide many predicted, yet he still won a statewide election in a genuinely purple state.
Next is Wisconsin, which looks poised to deliver a second example.
Democratic Socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong has a wide lead in the gubernatorial primary, leading Lt. Gov Mandela Barnes by 22-points in a recent Marquette Law School poll.
She has a similar 20-point lead over Barnes (35% to 15%) in another recent survey from PPP.
Should she win as the polls suggest, the far left will pick up another statewide primary win in a quintessential swing state.
To be sure, its not at all clear whether El-Sayed or Hong – assuming she is victorious – can win their general elections, though that is beside the point.
Progressive and socialist candidates have already won the argument with the primary electorate, and that forces everyone else to move.
Above all, it forces the candidate most likely to carry the party’s banner in 2028 to move in tandem.
In fact, his pivot is already underway.
Following the 2024 election, Newsom took an obvious tack to the center, and pushed for all Democrats to do the same.
He interviewed Charlie Kirk, publicly opposed transgender athletes playing in women’s sports, and slammed Democrats for “being too sensitive to woke culture” and downplaying Americans’ concerns on the economy and immigration.
Newsom also summed up what he felt went wrong in 2024, saying “we have to be more culturally normal. We have to be a little less judgmental.”
Seeing where his party is now headed, that more centrist Gavin Newsom is no longer.
During a Center for American Progress conference in May, Newsom said, “A year ago my sense was…that our path back as Democrats…was through the center. Increasingly, I’d argue, it’s through the fight.”
Further, he “went on to lay out an economic agenda that echoed the left wing’s denunciation of billionaires and the corporations they own.”
In order to win Democrats’ 2028 presidential nomination, Newsom will almost certainly have to go even further.
Should Newsom feel enough pressure from the far left bloc within Democrats’ primary electorate, Medicare for All, ending support for Israel, a national wealth tax – which he’s already backed – abolishing ICE, and multiple other extreme policies may be next.
It’s not hard to conceive of Newsom being forced to declare support for some of DSA’s more extreme policies like open borders or defunding police as a way to win over an increasingly far left base energized by candidates like El-Sayed, Hong, Jackson, and others.
Frankly, it’s beginning to look like a trap that Newsom may have no way to avoid.
The base that will decide Democrats’ next presidential nominee is considerably out of step with the voters needed to win a presidential election – Independents in purple states.
As a recent CNBC survey revealed, one-half of Americans say they are less likely to vote for a Democratic Socialist candidate, the exact voters Newsom – or whoever emerges from Democrats’ primary – needs to court.
Put another way, what wins a primary in Michigan, Wisconsin, or California is exactly what Republicans will weaponize against Newsom or any eventual Democratic nominee who panders to the far left.
To his credit, Newsom is seemingly aware of the trap.
He has rejected calls to abolish ICE – a winning argument in a general election but potentially toxic in a Democratic primary – and even walked back his own press office’s description of an ICE officer-involved shooting as “state sponsored terrorism.”
Newsom’s enduring vulnerability is a sense that he tailors his convictions to whoever he is speaking to, or is a political chameleon.
But, as Dan Walters wrote, “That can be tricky in an era of extreme political volatility, where what’s popular one day can quickly become radioactive.”
The far left’s string of primary victories and growing influence sharpens Newsom’s weakness into a genuine dilemma.
Will he adopt an agenda that wins him Democrats’ 2028 nomination but hands Republicans the attack ads? Or will he resist embracing the far left’s positions and hurt himself in the primary?
Either choice is likely to confirm suspicions that he stands for nothing.
Ultimately, regardless of their general election successes in November, the more lasting consequence of the far left’s power will be felt in 2028, when presidential candidates are forced to deal with the left’s remaking of the Democratic Party.
For Newsom – and for Democrats who are desperate to retake the White House – the question is whether they can win the primary without losing the general election.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.