Democratic Congressman Adam Schiff and Republican Steve Garvey, a former Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres star turned first-time candidate, advanced to California’s general election to replace the late Senator Dianne Feinstein in a special election this November.
And, while Garvey has virtually no chance of winning in November, his impressive showing leads one to conclude that he could eclipse 40% of the vote, which would not only be a considerable showing for a California Republican, but also a stinging rebuke of Democrat’s leftward shift, even in the bluest of states, especially as Garvey has barely campaigned and is relying on voters rejecting further left Democratic positions and Democratic voters clearly refused to “rally to the left.”
Schiff – hardly a moderate but more moderate than Rep. Katie Porter and especially more so than progressive Rep. Barbara Lee – had a relatively dominant performance against his fellow Democrats on Super Tuesday, having led the pack since the race was announced in early October. By Thursday, with 53% of the vote reported in the open primary, Schiff and Garvey were virtually tied (33%-to-32%), with Democratic Congresswomen Katie Porter (14%) and Barbara Lee (7%) finishing in a distant third and fourth place.
As I predicted in these pages last month, Barbara Lee played spoiler for Porter, in part, as her base siphoned off votes to prevent Porter from overtaking Garvey in second place. Arguably more important, Lee’s candidacy prevented Porter from gaining any real momentum by consolidating California’s more liberal voter blocs.
However, even if Lee was not in the mix and Porter received all of her votes – which may have been unlikely – it still would not have been nearly enough to overtake Garvey in second place, given that Porter and Lee combined for less than one-quarter of the overall vote, which still would have been more than 10-points lower than Garvey.
Schiff’s victory over the other Democrats on the ballot, while expected, was even more impressive in certain key Democratic counties, reinforcing the conclusion that Democrats did not rally to the left.
In Los Angeles county, Schiff beat Porter by more than a 2:1 margin (37%-to-14%). In Santa Clara, Schiff trounced Porter 40%-to-15%. Moreover, Schiff won among voter blocs that should have been solidly behind Porter. Among liberals, Schiff won by 10-points (45%-to-35%) and among women he won by 13-points (34%-to-21%).
Schiff outspent Porter, his biggest Democratic rival, by more than double ($44.8 million to Porter’s $18.6 million). In the aftermath of Tuesday’s results, Porter has brazenly called Schiff’s victory “rigged by billionaires,” a reckless statement for a Democrat as the party battles the MAGA Republican narrative that Joe Biden did not legitimately win the 2020 election.
Brilliantly, Schiff’s strategists – in an attempt to consolidate the conservative vote around Garvey and push Porter out of second place – launched a $11.2 million ad blitz in the final weeks of the campaign painting Garvey as “too conservative” for California. As a result, Garvey, who raised only a few million dollars, and barely campaigned, was boosted into second place.
Looking toward Schiff’s general election matchup with Garvey, Schiff should focus on key issues that voters expressed concern about in exit polling data. More than a third of voters reported the cost of living (36%) as their greatest concern. Immigration and homelessness were tied for the second spot at 17% each.
Among conservatives, however, the chief concern was overwhelmingly immigration. Three-fourths (74%) of Garvey’s voters reported immigration as their top concern compared to a combined 17% of voters who voted for either Schiff, Porter, or Lee. If Schiff would like to expand on his lead and eat into Garvey’s support, he must grab the attention of conservatives by supporting expansive immigration reforms to tighten the border and strengthen asylum laws in California.
To be clear, this is not to suggest that Garvey, a novice candidate and a California Republican to boot, has anything remotely resembling an inside track in November’s election. California has not elected a Republican Senator in nearly four decades. Rather, it is to suggest that given the expected high turnout in November, and Democrats’ likely enthusiasm gap with Republicans, Schiff would be wise to move towards the center.
California had a number of other consequential primary races up and down the ballot on Tuesday, setting the stage for both parties, with their razor thin majorities, to have a chance at retaking Congress in 2024, and the results underscore that if Democrats want any chance of winning in November, they have to move to the middle.
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Indeed, Republicans had impressive showings in California’s 45th and 27th Districts, where two GOP incumbents, Michelle Steel (45th) and Mike Garcia (27th) have won sizable victories over Democratic challengers in districts both parties had targeted as vulnerable.
As we look toward the general election in November, California has reinforced the blueprint for Democrats that moderate Democrat Tom Suozzi laid down in his special election victory a few weeks ago in New York. The party would be wise to internalize that message, and realize that even in the most liberal of states, there is little appetite for progressive policies, which may actually boost turnout for Republicans.
Put another way, Democrats should move to the center on issues such as the border and the economy, as those will continue being the top-issues which move the needle for voters, who have made it clear that they prefer middle-of-the-road solutions to extremes on either side.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.