A new analysis on reaching California’s ambitious climate goals actually highlights the state’s numerous contradictions. For example, more housing construction is needed to reduce the homelessness and housing crises. But that means producing more concrete, a cause of greenhouse gasses. And the mandate for 100% zero-emission vehicles by 2035 means creating more electricity, despite the state’s continued reliance on natural-gas power plants.
The analysis is the 2023 California Green Innovation Index, produced by Beacon Economics of Los Angeles and Next 10, a think tank based in San Francisco. It found greenhouse gas emissions from transportation dropped 8.8% in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We all remember when the highways were empty during the lockdowns. Then the emissions rebounded by 3.4% in 2021 and produced 381.3 million metric tons of carbon-dioxide equivalent.
“The increase in emissions following the pandemic makes it all the more difficult for California to meet its climate goals on time,” said Next 10 Founder F. Noel Perry in a statement. He said the state won’t meet its 2030 goals until 2047 and to do so must triple decarbonization advances from 1.5% each year currently to 4.6%.
However, the key is the study’s 2020 International Scorecards. They show China produced nearly 10,842 million metric tons of CO2. That’s 36 times California’ 303.4 million tons that year. The top 10 countries produced 25,542 tons, 84 times California’s number.
California’s goal is to cut CO2 to 86 million tons a year by 2050. But even if that were met, it would have almost no effect on the global climate because other countries are not working toward similar goals.
The Green Innovation Index also found a quarter of vehicles sold in the state in 2023 were zero-emission vehicles. If that trend continues, the state’s goal of 5 million ZEVs on the road will be met by 2029, a year early. However, again looking globally, a December Bloomberg report found, “Global road transport emissions continue to rise,” despite greater ZEV sales. The reason is the developing world is following the path America did a century ago of putting more people and industry on wheels.
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“California regularly doesn’t take into account technological feasibility or consumer preferences,” notes Daren Bakst, director of the Competitive Enterprise Institute’s Center for Energy and Environment. “The regulations also will have no measurable impact on global temperatures.”
He pointed out developing nations need to increase CO2 emissions to prosper. When nations become wealthier, they will be in a better position to address environmental issues. Prosperity is key for those countries because “poverty and homelessness make people more vulnerable to all hazards, including climate-related hazards.”
California policymakers ought to pay more attention to the actual needs of Californians for lower-cost housing, transportation and energy, and obsess less over expensive and unrealistic climate goals. California is a world-famous part of the United States, but it’s not the center of the world. Let’s solve today’s housing and cost-of-living problems first.