This weekend’s big race for 3-year-old horses at Santa Anita could help answer the key question about California-based contenders for the Kentucky Derby.
In a normal season, that question would be which horse will carry western hopes to Churchill Downs in the spring. In 2024, it’s whether any horse from here will have a chance of winning there.
The cause is a combination of factors: Churchill Downs’ extraordinary decision to extend Bob Baffert’s ban into a third season since Medina Spirit’s disqualification from victory in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. And horse owners’ decision to stand by Baffert and not transfer their Triple Crown prospects to other trainers to keep them Derby-eligible this year, the way many did in ’22 and ’23.
Baffert, the six-time Derby winner, has the most and the best 3-year-olds in California and maybe the whole nation. They’re running in the series of Derby prep races even though they’re auditioning for the May 18 Preakness, not the May 4 Derby. Their giant presence makes it harder for eligible horses to win races and earn serious Derby qualifying points.
Santa Anita will run the $300,000 Grade II San Felipe Stakes on Sunday after the card, headed by the $500,000 Grade I Santa Anita Handicap, was postponed from Saturday because of weather handicappers’ forecast for heavy rain.
The field set Thursday for the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe consists of three Baffert-trained horses – top-ranked U.S. 3-year-old Nysos, Robert Lewis Stakes runner-up Wine Me Up and first-time stakes runner Imagination – and two others in John Sadler-trained Scatify and John Shirreffs-trained Mc Vay.
If either Scatify or Mc Vay can win the Felipe – improving on those colts’ third- and fourth-place finishes behind Nysos and Wine Me Up in the Lewis Stakes a month ago – he’ll earn 50 points and be a virtual lock to qualify for the 20-horse Derby field, which usually requires a point total in the 40s.
Second through fifth places in the San Felipe bring 20, 15, 10 and five points.
Scatify, Mc Vay and other 3-year-olds representing California trainers other than Bob Baffert have catching up to do, both in the Derby qualifying points standings and in the estimations of Derby handicappers.
Only one California-based horse, Stronghold, ranks in the top 20 points-getters. Stronghold is No. 4 on the list, with 25 points (Timberlake is No. 1 with 56) after trainer Phil D’Amato took the son of Ghostzapper to the Sunland Derby in New Mexico on Feb. 18 and earned 20 points for winning with jockey Antonio Fresu.
Among the 55 horses who’ve earned at least one Derby qualifying point so far are only three others from California: Scatify, tied for 28th on the list with six points; McVay, tied for 39th with four; and Tim Yakteen-trained Moonlit Sonata, tied for 48th with two.
As for how California 3-year-olds look to handicappers: Stronghold, the only West Coast horse among the 39 individuals offered in the latest Kentucky Derby future wager pool, ended up with 99-1 odds of winning the Derby. The Daily Racing Form ranks Stronghold 20th among Derby hopefuls, assigning him 40-1 odds. Jon White, the Santa Anita and Del Mar morning-line maker and columnist for Xpressbet.com, relegates Stronghold and Scatify to the “Bubbling Under My Top 10” section of his Derby rankings.
“At this time, Stronghold looks like the best Southern California-based 3-year-old to possibly be in this year’s Kentucky Derby,” White said by email Wednesday. “But he currently is considered an outsider.”
White ranks Japan’s Forever Young at No. 1 in his Derby top 10. White leaves no doubt a Baffert horse would be No. 1 if eligible, calling the unbeaten Nysos “the most exciting racehorse on the Southern California circuit since the great Flightline.”
Trainers looking to avoid Baffert horses can follow D’Amato’s lead and go out of town. Sadler and Doug O’Neill are chasing 50 winner’s points in Saturday’s $300,000 Grade III Gotham Stakes in New York, Sadler entering Slider, who ran third in the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita – behind a Baffert exacta of Muth and Pilot Commander – O’Neill entering Facenda, a maiden winner in Arizona.
Points aside, though, eventually any 3-year-old must prove competitive in prep races against the best horses of his generation to be viewed as a contender to win the Kentucky Derby. It’s up to horses like Scatify and Mc Vay to do that in the San Felipe or on April 6 in the $750,000 Grade I Santa Anita Derby, one of eight upcoming preps offering 100 points to the winner.
Do California’s prospects of producing the state’s fifth Kentucky Derby winner in the past 10 years – and 12th in the past 27 – really matter? Regional rivalries can spice up a major horse race, and a circuit’s reputation is helped by national success. But in a gambling sport, people don’t necessarily root for the home team.
Strong showings soon by a Derby-eligible California horse could help fans here find a rooting interest or a good bet for the first Saturday in May without looking too far.
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Here are the lineups for Sunday, in post-position order, with jockeys and morning-line odds:
San Felipe Stakes
1. Scatify, Hector Berrios, 6-1
2. Wine Me Up, Juan Hernandez, 8-1
3. Nysos, Flavien Prat, 1-5
4. Mc Vay, Antonio Fresu, 20-1
5. Imagination, Frankie Dettori, 6-1
Santa Anita Handicap
1. Reincarnate, Juan Hernandez, 8-1
2. Highland Falls, Florent Geroux, 3-1
3. Mixto, Antonio Fresu, 6-1
4. Salesman, Flavien Prat, 6-1
5. Newgate, Frankie Dettori, 4-1
6. Subsanador, Hector Berrios, 5-1
7. Newgrange, Victor Espinoza, 5-2
Follow Kevin Modesti on Twitter (formerly X) @Kevin Modesti.