What happened
Federal prosecutors in Manhattan on Thursday charged a U.S. special forces soldier with insider trading for allegedly using classified information about the raid on Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to net $409,000 on the prediction marketplace Polymarket. Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke placed 13 bets on the U.S. going after Maduro from Dec. 27 until hours before the Jan. 3 raid, which he helped plan and execute, the indictment alleges.
Who said what
The charges are “believed to be the first instance” of the Justice Department “prosecuting a case of insider trading on a prediction market,” ABC News said. The case, alongside other “presciently well-timed wagers around geopolitical events” like the Iran war, has “ignited broad concern” in Washington about using insider information to rig Polymarket and its chief rival, Kalshi, Politico said.
“The whole world unfortunately has become somewhat of a casino,” President Donald Trump said Thursday about government employees using prediction markets. “It is what it is. I’m not happy with any of that stuff.” But prediction markets “love the president’s unpredictability,” The Associated Press said. And Trump “seems to be a big fan, applying a light regulatory touch” and suing states “trying to ban prediction markets.” The Trump Organization is working to open its own prediction market, and Donald Trump Jr. is a Polymarket investor and a Kalshi adviser.
What next?
If convicted, Van Dyke faces many years in prison. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission also filed a parallel civil lawsuit seeking full restitution and penalties.