After just a week of spring training games, the New York Yankees are predicted to win the American League East, unseating the reigning AL champion Toronto Blue Jays â but not by much, and not in very impressive fashion. At least that’s the current verdict handed down by FanGraphs and its analytically based projections. As of Feb. 27, FanGraphsâ ZiPS projections see the Yankees edging the Blue Jays by 1.4 games. FanGraphs projects the Yankees with 86.4 wins to 85 for the Jays.
The FanGraphs win-total projection seems overly pessimistic, given that the Yankees have won at least 91 games in seven of the last eight full seasons (pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign excluded) and racked up 94 victories in each of the last two years.
But there is one significant factor that could work against the Yankees. In 2025, prolific power hitter Giancarlo Stanton â MLB’s active career home run leader with 453 â was forced to sit out 85 games with an arthritic condition in both elbows.
In spring training, Stanton’s elbow pain is back, or perhaps never went away, putting his ability to play the 2026 season âin jeopardy,â according to one leading Yankees analyst. In fact, Stanton’s pain in both elbows is so severe that, he told reporters on Thursday, he âcanât open a bottle. I canât open a bag of chips ⦠a bag of anything. Thatâs the way it is.â
How Bad Is Stanton’s Chronic Elbow Pain?
A Friday report by Pinstripes Nation reporter and analyst Sara Molnick revealed that for Stanton, a 16-year veteran and 2017 National League MVP, and his ailing elbows, âthe daily reality of this condition is far more severe than most Yankees fans realize.â
In addition to his alarming comments that he is not able to perform routine, everyday tasks like opening bottles or potato chip bags, Stanton admitted to Yankees correspondent Randy Miller of NJ.com that an entire offseason to rest his aching elbows had no effect.
âThatâll never be the case,â he told Miller, who described Stanton as speaking softly. âNot while Iâm in this line of work. You have your good days and bad days, just like your mood and everything.â
According to the NJ.com report, elbow surgery to alleviate the pain in Stanton’s tendons would have required only âa couple months recoveryâ time. But Stanton said he was skeptical of that assessment, declaring, âI donât care what any doctor says because they donât know whatâs going on.â
How Much Will Stanton Play This Season?
Stanton’s admission of the severity of his injury âpaints a picture of a player who is fighting through constant discomfort just to perform basic tasks, let alone swing a bat against 97-mph fastballs,â Molnick wrote. âStanton has been among baseballâs leaders in exit velocity for years and recorded a 94.4 mph average exit velocity in 2025. That kind of force puts enormous stress on his elbows every time he makes contact.â
So how much will Stanton play in 2026? The 36-year-old five-time All-Star could only say that, âthe key is get in the box. My last year overall numbers were low. I want a full season.â
But as Molnick noted in her report, Stanton has played only one season in a Yankees uniform that could be described as âfull.â That came in 2018, his first year in the Bronx after the Miami Marlins traded Stanton and the 13-year, $325 million contract he signed in 2014 to the Yankees, when he appeared in 158 games.
âDuring his seven seasons with the Yankees, Stanton has appeared in only 56.4% of the teamâs 1,032 regular-season games,â Molnick wrote. âHe has been sidelined by hamstring injuries, oblique strains and the ongoing elbow pain. He has played more than 115 games only onceâ since that 158-game season. That came in 2021, when he appeared in 139 Yankees games.
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