The New York Yankees made one of the offseason’s biggest splashes by acquiring outfielder Juan Soto via trade with the San Diego Padres in December. It’s safe to say expectations are high as the left-handed slugger prepares for his first year in pinstripes.
Bleacher Report’s Joel Rueter shared 10 hot takes on March 13 about the upcoming season. His hot take about Soto is that he’ll lead the American League in home runs.
“Juan Soto set a career high for home runs last season playing his home games at Petco Park and regularly taking the field in pitcher-friendly venues across the NL West aside from the launching pad that is Coors Field,” he said. “The 25-year-old now heads to Yankee Stadium where he will take aim at friendly right field dimensions while likely hitting in the No. 2 spot in the lineup behind all-world slugger Aaron Judge, giving him the best protection of his career.”
ESPN’s Jeff Passan might agree with Rueter. “Hitting toward the right-field porch, he’s primed to far exceed his career-high 35 home runs last season,” he said in a March 15 bold predictions article.
Soto hit those 35 homers in 2023 while calling Petco Park home. According to Statcast’s park factors, it’s been the 12th-toughest place to hit a home run since 2021. The slugger now moves to Yankee Stadium, which has been the third-easiest place to slug a dinger during that time.
Juan Soto Has Plenty of Motivation to Have a Big Year
The Yankees will be Soto’s third big-league team since making his debut in 2018. Before playing for the Padres, he was a star with the Washington Nationals. Neither area is nearly as big of a media market as New York. As one of baseball’s brightest young stars, a huge 2024 performance can launch Soto even further into superstardom.
But that’s not the only motivation for the left-handed slugger. After making $31 million while suiting up for the Yankees this year, he’s set to become a free agent in November. A year after Shohei Ohtani landed an incredible 10-year, $700 million guarantee from the Los Angeles Dodgers, Soto is primed to be baseball’s next $500 million player.
The Athletic’s Tim Britton has projected his next contract at 15 years and $540 million. That’d give him the second-richest contract in MLB history. Spotrac is pegging Soto’s market value at 12 years and $408 million. However, Soto and agent Scott Boras rejected a 15-year, $440 million extension offer from Washington in 2022. So there’s no way they’ll settle for less than that.
With the Yankees and New York Mets among the big-market teams primed to compete for his services, bidding should easily surpass the $500 million mark.
What Do the Projections Say Will Happen?
Soto’s FanGraphs stat page has various home run projections on it. ZiPS is pegging him for 33 homers. However, Steamer (38) and ATC (37) projections each think he’ll set a new career-high mark in 2024.
When looking at overall American League home run projections, Soto falls short of the lead. ZiPS projects Aaron Judge (40) and Yordan Alvarez (36) for more. He’s tied for third with Rafael Devers at 33. Steamer projections once again place Soto third behind Judge (46) and Alvarez (39). ATC projections have the same order for the top three, with Judge (44) and Alvarez (39) ahead of Soto (37).
What’s important from looking at these projections is that Soto is expected to be among the league leaders. If he performs well, all it takes is one hot streak to reach the top.
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