Paxton Lynch fit the offense like a fish on a bicycle.
Let’s start there on why the Broncos enter Thursday’s NFL draft still searching for a franchise quarterback eight years after Peyton Manning retired.
There have been 13 starters since Super Bowl 50, tied for second most behind the Cleveland Browns. Only two have produced a winning record: Trevor Siemien (13-11) and Brett Rypien (2-1).
Lynch and Russell Wilson represent the franchise’s most dramatic failures, moves that shook the franchise to its roots because of the scramble for replacements and financial shrapnel left in their wake. Roughly half the teams in the NFL remain tortured by the process of how to identify and land a quarterback.
The good news for the Broncos is that the draft provides a golden opportunity for coach Sean Payton to find his next Drew Brees. The Broncos’ next starter could define Payton’s legacy in Denver, where he arrived last offseason with a reputation as a quarterback whisperer.
But, there is no guarantee that after all the flights, meetings, film sessions and internal discussions, the Broncos will get this right. The last time the Broncos drafted a quarterback in the first round in 2016, Lynch turned into a punchline. As the Broncos consider their options, it’s important to let the past inform the future, providing hacks for success and pitfalls to avoid.
In Lynch’s case, former general manager John Elway moved up in the draft to acquire the Memphis star, lured by his athleticism, size and potential. Too bad Lynch had never been in a huddle. Or under center. His mind raced whenever he tried to operate coach Gary Kubiak’s offense.
A new coach in Vance Joseph and new offensive coordinator in Mike McCoy could not make it work either, and in 2018 Lynch was cut.
“You got burned because you bought one new car in the last 13,” said Super Bowl 50 champion and CBS NFL analyst Ryan Harris. “Then you got various versions of used cars. Now, it’s time to look for the new hybrid. From the outside looking in, the idea of Payton finding his next guy is exciting.”
The Broncos have tried almost everything with disappointing results. There was the aforementioned late first-rounder Lynch, the seventh-rounder Siemian, the Day 2 dare Drew Lock, the rising veteran Case Keenum, the castaways with glorious pasts (Joe Flacco and Teddy Bridgewater) and the savior in Wilson. They all had their moments, but none met expectations.
Case Keenum (4) of the Denver Broncos hands the ball off during the first quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers at Mile High in Denver, Colorado on Sunday, Dec. 30, 2018. (Joe Amon, The Denver Post)
“We get too enamored with the best athletes or the big throws,” said 104.3 The Fan host and Fox NFL color commentator Mark Schlereth. “You know what works? Boring wins football games. Boring keeps you on schedule. That’s what I want to see out of their next quarterback.”
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The Broncos have never selected a quarterback in the top 10. Since February, rumblings persist that Payton will move up in an attempt to select from the trio of LSU’s Jayden Daniels, North Carolina’s Drake Maye and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy. If Daniels and McCarthy are available when picks three and four roll around, will the Broncos cut in line and mortgage multiple first-round picks? Payton still talks with regret about not trading up for Patrick Mahomes in 2017. Payton has intel on Daniels from his LSU connections, and he personally ran McCarthy through a long workout and meeting session.
“Sean is a hard ass. J.J. never complains. He will walk the path needed to win,” said former Broncos tight end and Big Ten commentator Jake Butt. “In Denver, you need a quarterback who can come in there, not give a crap and not get caught up in the headlines. That’s who J.J. is.”
The most important thing for a rookie quarterback, arguably, is the team that drafts him. It is one of several elements — evaluation, singular organizational vision, strong offensive line, offensive weapons — that can determine whether a drafted quarterback reaches his ceiling or gets swept away on the cutting-room floor.
It starts with the draft evaluation. Payton believes the Broncos are better at it than most, talking confidently about their vetting process. There is no singular template to follow, no Staples Easy Button to push for answers.
“I have been doing this for the last three years and it’s hard,” said former Broncos quarterback and current 49ers quarterback coach Brian Griese. “The college game, less and less, does not translate into what they are asked to do in the NFL. You really have to extrapolate and project, and understand who they are mentally. Can they handle being the guy? And you have to form their fundamentals and technique and you don’t know if it will hold. There’s a lot of risk. You see that every year with guys who fail. It is not easy. But it feels like this year they have to get it right.”
Payton knows the position, having played it in college, and worked in the NFL as an assistant or head coach since 1997. The quarterback’s ability to learn and process information remains critical. It is why the Broncos sent over material late to the prospects to see how they handled cramming for the interview exam. He wants a quarterback with all the hardware and software.
Drew Lock (3) of the Denver Broncos reacts to throwing an incompletion to Jerry Jeudy (10) on third down against the Kansas City Chiefs during the first quarter at Empower Field at Mile High on Saturday, Jan. 8, 2021. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
When looking at Broncos past mistakes in the draft, Lynch was not ready to digest a pro offense, and Lock struggled to find a balance between taking chances and taking care of the ball.
There were warning signs with Lynch when teams interviewed him because of the lacking verbiage in Memphis play calls and his lack of responsibility at the line of scrimmage. Lock threw 99 touchdowns in college, but also had 39 interceptions, seldom prevented from playing hero-ball as Missouri tried to overcome better SEC opponents with Lock’s arm.
Changing coaches and coordinators did not help either. This brings up a point that seems obvious. Everyone has to be committed to the quarterback. Regardless of talent, rarely are top picks capable of overcoming dysfunction.
“If the GM, owner and coach are not on the same page, it’s doomed to fail,” said former Broncos Super Bowl 50 champion and Altitude Radio personality Tyler Polumbus. “At the end of the day, Sean has the final say. There shouldn’t be discord. What I experienced in Washington when the owner (Daniel Snyder) forced (coach) Mike (Shanahan) to draft Robert Griffin III, and then Mike drafted Kirk Cousins later on — there’s no quicker way to sabotage a quarterback than that.”
Payton and general manager George Paton insist they have healthy discussions, leaving Paton with a vision on what his coach wants. The pair said there will be no disagreements on draft day — this is not a Kevin Costner movie.
While an argument can be made that the Broncos roster is not quarterback ready — “I might try to get out of salary cap hell that Russ put them in, and add more pieces,” said former NFL quarterback and Seattle radio host Brock Huard — they boast an appealing strength in the offensive line.
While Wilson was sacked 45 times in 15 games last season, internally the Broncos view the line as a positive, frequently assigning blame on Wilson for putting the offense behind the sticks. The Broncos started the same starting five in every game save for the season finale when right tackle Mike McGlinchey missed with injured ribs.
“It plays a much larger role than people realize,” Harris said. “The quarterback needs consistency, needs to know when he moves in the pocket where he will be safe.”
Perhaps the biggest challenge for a Broncos first-round quarterback — whether that’s in the top 10 or later with Oregon’s Bo Nix or Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. — is the lack of playmakers. The Broncos have not had a 1,000-yard rusher or receiver since 2019, and only three 1,000-yard rushers (C.J. Anderson, Phillip Lindsay twice) and two 1,000-yard receivers (Emmanuel Sanders, Courtland Sutton) since the quarterback carousel began in 2016.
“That seems to be a conversation I have a lot with teams around the league is, OK, A, do we take (a quarterback)? Then do we put him out there right away?” said NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah. “And do we have the infrastructure for him to survive and be successful?”
Payton is considered an elite play-caller. However, he demands a lot of his quarterback. His playbook is not for the weak of mind. Payton has only started a rookie once in 258 regular-season games. It is why so many mocks connect the dots to Nix, who will be a rookie in name only, having started 61 college games.
Oregon quarterback Bo Nix (10) looks to pass against Hawaii during the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 16, 2023, in Eugene, Ore. (AP Photo/Andy Nelson)
“He wants his quarterback to be able to process quickly, and hit that dig route at 14 to 18 yards. Under Drew Brees they would hit that 7-to-8 times a game,” Schlereth said. “I like Nix. I saw him make a lot of those throws. And I saw McCarthy run a lot of NFL concepts. I know Sean is a good coach. But he has to be sold on a guy and believe beyond a shadow of doubt that guy can be successful.”
The staff — the Broncos have a rising star in quarterbacks coach Davis Webb — must have a plan for the player and the motivation to make it work. Shifting through the previous Broncos’ quarterback wreckage, it is clear how ill-fitted concepts and lack of commitment contributed to abysmal results.
There have been 13 attempts. And 13 whiffs. All that can go away with the right choice on Thursday night.
“I want Payton drooling over one guy. And if he wants one, go get him, don’t wait,” said Broncos Hall of Famer Terrell Davis. “If they walk out this draft without a quarterback, oh boy! I am going to have my popcorn ready.”
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