Two years ago, Matt McLain looked like being one of the Cincinnati Reds’ rising stars. Coming through at the same time as superstar Elly De La Cruz, McClain had achieved at every minor league level, showing power despite his small size to go along with defense, strike zone management and some speed on the bases.
When he first arrived at the Major League level, he looked immediately ready. As a rookie in 2023, McLain hit .290 with 16 home runs, 50 RBIs and an .864 OPS in just 89 games, finishing fifth in National League Rookie of the Year voting.
However, then came a shoulder injury that wiped out his entire 2024 season. A torn labrum is a serious baseball injury and routinely takes a year to get back to full speed even after getting back to health, which helped offset his disappointing 2025 return; the expectation entering 2026 was that a fully healthy McLain in 2026 would finally resemble the player the Reds thought they had found.
Things, though, are no better.
McLain And The Reds’ Lack Of Offense
Entering the final week of June, McLain is hitting just .198 with eight home runs and 25 RBIs. His OPS sits below .650 again, a disappointing number for a player who was expected to be one of the more solid contributors of Cincinnati’s line-up. The line-up as a whole outside of Elly has struggled, as seems to be the case every year with the Reds these days, yet McLain has struggled the most, last on the team in OPS among qualified players.
To be fair, not everything has gone wrong, as McLain’s defence remains excellent. In fact, that side of his game has largely held up throughout his offensive struggles. The Reds continue to trust him at second base because his glove and athleticism have not disappeared, and despite McLain reportedly taking some outfield reps as the team tries to find a home for Edwin Arroyo – the strategy of acquiring all the infield prospects and hoping to figure out their fit later might be starting to lead to diminishing returns already – McLain remains the best defensive option at second.
The problem is simply that the bat has not come close to matching expectations.
At various points, there have been signs of life. McLain homered twice in a game against the St Louis Cardinals in early June, and has at least has continued to show flashes of the pull-side power despite batting below .200. A regression from the .290 batting average given his high strikeout rates was also inevitable. But not to this extent. The consistency has never arrived for McLain, except in terms of his strikeout totals, which remain high.
Time Is Not Unlimited
Perhaps some of it is down to luck. According to FanGraphs, McLain’s average exit velocity is nearly unchanged from last season, while his barrel rate has actually improved. The quality of contact is not dramatically different from what it was when he was succeeding. Yet the results have lagged far behind what those indicators would normally suggest.
At times, McLain has looked caught between being aggressive and being patient. To press at the plate following one missing season and one-and-a-half poor ones is understandable, and the lingering shadow of the shoulder injury probably cannot be ignored either.
The are still reasons for optimism. McLain is only 26 years old, and the athleticism remains intact. The power is still visible. His defensive value gives him a relatively high floor even when he is not hitting. And unlike some struggling hitters, he has already shown he can succeed in the majors, even if it was quite a while ago now. This is not a prospect trying to prove he belongs. This is a player who has already demonstrated that he can be an impact contributor when everything is working.
The bigger question is whether the Reds will wait much longer. After all, they have plenty more infielders still to place.
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