DALLAS — For the rest of the year, the Warriors will be playing two games simultaneously: the one on the court and the one in the standings.
Warriors players and coaches check the Western Conference standings daily. They know that their push to escape the play-in round becomes more and more tenuous with every loss. They know they need to treat every game with urgency and intensity.
“Yeah, it feels daunting — the fact that you don’t want to be the 10-seed, obviously,” said rookie guard Brandin Podziemski. “You don’t want to be a 10-seed and have to play two road games before getting to an actual series. And you’ve got to win both.”
By falling to the Mavericks, another current play-in team, the Warriors dropped to 34-31 and remained the 10th seed. The matchup was the start of a string of games with major postseason implications upcoming: starting with the Lakers game in Crypto.com Arena Saturday, Golden State has two contests with Los Angeles and two more with Dallas left. Those results could determine the ultimate play-in seedings, either by outright record or tiebreaker.
“(The Mavericks) are in the play-in too right now, same with the Lakers and Sacramento,” Podziemski added. “Any chance we get to play one of those teams, it’s crucial that we win.”
The Warriors have been open about their goal of rising up to the six-seed and out of the play-in round. But with 17 games remaining, that objective is more and more far-fetched. Those four games against the Lakers and Mavericks are highlighted on the calendar.
According to playoffstatus.com, the Warriors have a 56% chance at claiming the 10-seed, which would earn them consecutive elimination games on the road. The same site gives them 1% longshot odds to reach the sixth seed.
Golden State had won six of seven games before this current 2-4 slide. Any winning streak can be canceled out by a skid. They’re optimistic that they’ve found a clearer identity, but finishing in the ninth or tenth seed would be precarious for any squad. Teams ranked six through 10 in the West each have winning percentages between .523 and .585, so there’s bound to be some leap-frogging.
“You can’t worry about it,” Steve Kerr said. “The season, it really is a marathon. At any point in the season, you rattle off 10 wins in a row. Whether it’s at the beginning or the end, it doesn’t matter. I still have no doubt that this team can get on a great run and make a good push.”
The Warriors had neither Steph Curry (ankle sprain) nor Draymond Green (low back soreness) available against the Mavericks, who bullied them into submission. The Warriors are 1-5 in games without Curry this season, making his return — and ability to play at full strength — pivotal.
Both Curry and Green could return as early as Saturday in Los Angeles.
On the year, the Warriors are 0-2 against the Mavericks and 1-1 against the Lakers. They’ve already lost the tiebreaking season series against Phoenix and would need a miracle to earn the tiebreaker over Sacramento (by virtue of division record). One more loss to the Mavericks would clinch a tiebreaker for Dallas, as well; because of their conference records, Golden State likely would lose to tiebreaker there even if they split the season series.
In other words, the two rivalry games remaining against the Lakers could be Golden State’s only chance at claiming a key tiebreaker.
At least for the cluttered West, it’s just about the point in the season where teams will start thinking about jockeying for playoff position — even with over a month left. Before Wednesday night’s game, Mavericks coach Jason Kidd brushed off a question about tiebreaker scenarios.
“Right now, we don’t have time to talk about tiebreakers,” Kidd said. “Focus on the game plan, continue to trust, continue to build our chemistry as we go forward. As you know, March will come to an end and it’ll be April. Just gotta take it one game at a time, focus on that. But at some point, we can talk about that. Right now, we’re just focused on ourselves.”
The Warriors have no choice but to abide by the same message. As the playoff picture kaboose, Golden State has significant ground to make up.
The Dallas result was just the first of several games with major implications as the season transitions from a marathon to a sprint.