Less than 24 hours after Steph Curry revealed he has had conversations with LeBron James, it appears the Golden State Warriors‘ chances to sign the superstar are trending in the wrong direction. The latest odds are moving in a massive way towards the Cleveland Cavaliers.
According to Polymarket, the Cavs now have a 62% chance to land James, up 21% in the latest NBA odds. The Warriors have just an 11% chance to sign James, down 15%.
Golden State now sits as a distant third in the NBA odds behind the Cavaliers and Miami Heat (16%).
The news comes after The Ringer’s Bill Simmons noted that James joining the Cavaliers is a “done deal.” Simmons suggests the Warriors were being used as leverage to get a better deal from the Cavaliers.
“The thing that happened to poor Golden State is, I think they thought they were getting LeBron and potentially [Anthony Davis] and now, it’s pretty clear they were being used by leverage, as leverage, as LeBron goes back to Cleveland,” Simmons noted on his July 9, 2026, podcast, per HoopsHype.
“… The Cleveland thing is done.”
Warriors Rumors: Steph Curry Has Been Recruiting LeBron James During NBA Free Agency
ESPN’s Anthony Slater reported that James and Curry have been in communication during NBA free agency. Additionally, James was spotted golfing in Puerto Rico with Draymond Green.
“Curry and James have talked in the last week, league sources confirmed, mostly through text message,” Slater wrote in a July 9, 2026, story titled, “Steph Curry acknowledges appeal of playing with LeBron James.”
“Longtime Curry teammate Draymond Green is vacationing with James in Puerto Rico and was spotted on the golf course with him Thursday afternoon.”
Warriors News: Golden State Has ‘Low Level of Optimism’ on LeBron James
The Warriors have a “low level of optimism” about the team’s chances of landing James. Golden State has been banking on the hope that James’ relationship with Curry and Green could help boost the Warriors’ chances.
“Since the early hours of free agency, Warriors sources have maintained a low level of optimism in regard to their chances of ultimately persuading James to join them, primarily acknowledging the Cleveland Cavaliers as a suitor that’d be difficult to beat,” Slater detailed
“But Golden State’s advantages include the mutual respect and friendship James has with Curry and Green and the relaxed, veteran-friendly environment created by both of them along with coach Steve Kerr, who coached James and Curry in the 2024 Olympics.”
Steph Curry on LeBron James Potentially Joining Warriors: ‘A Little Premature Right Now’
Time will tell if the Warriors can gain any ground in the race to land James. Curry admitted that the idea of being teammates with James is “a little premature right now.”
“Up until probably two, three years ago, that was like a pipe-dream question or even a thought,” Curry told Slater. “But that’s part of the allure.
“Him going into his 24th season, me going into my 18th, the battles we’ve had, that would be such a unique story in NBA history, in sports history. But a little premature right now to talk about it.”
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