The US Men’s National Team has comported itself well through the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, winning Group D with a record of 2-0-1 after a last-second loss in Game 3 against Turkiye despite dominating the majority of the contest.
But the competition is about to level up as America enters the knockout rounds next week.
First up for the USMNT is almost certain to be Bosnia and Herzegovina, which beat Qatar, tied Canada in something of a surprise result and lost to Switzerland by a score of 4-1. While far from a given, the United States will be a strong favorite to best the third-place team from Group B in San Francisco on July 1 at 8 p.m. ET.
But what comes after if the USMNT wins, however, is a potential gauntlet of some of the most recognizable countries and best sides global soccer has to offer across what would be a four-match run to World Cup glory.
USMNT Would Likely Face Both France, Argentina on Path to World Cup Title
GettyLionel Messi of Argentina.
Taylor Twellman, the lead MLS analyst for Apple TV, took to social media on Saturday, June 27 to set the table for what the United States’ route to a World Cup title is most likely to look like.
And the news is not … great.
A defeat of Bosnia and Herzegovina will result in the USMNT matching up against Belgium, the winners of a weaker Group D (Egypt, Iran, New Zealand) via a 1-2-0 record, or the team that bests Belgium in the Round of 32.
The United States should certainly be able to hold its own against whichever opponent pops up in the Round of 16, and a USMNT victory would not be an unreasonable or necessarily unexpected outcome.
However, the potential/most likely opponents starting in the quarterfinals (Round 0f 8) are daunting giants of the sport, starting with Spain (2-1-0 with a plus-five goal differential). The Spanish have yet to lose a match outright or surrender a single goal through three contests played.
If the U.S. can get past Spain, the team will probably face Killian Mbappe and the powerhouse group from France, which finished second in the 2022 World Cup after winning it all in 2018.
And the most likely prize for the United States squad if it can boot its way into the finals? A matchup with reigning World Cup champion Argentina and arguably the best player in soccer history, Lionel Messi.
Two Victories in Knockout Stages Would Result in Best-Ever World Cup Finish for USMNT
GettyChristian Pulisic of the USMNT.
Twellman’s projection is just that, as there are several potential hiccups along the way for the top teams in the field.
But as far as probabilities go, if the best teams continue winning down the bracket, and the USMNT does as well, a semifinals and finals path to the World Cup title includes both of the two most recent champions for the United States.
The best World Cup finish in U.S. history technically came in 1930, the inaugural edition of the event, in which the country finished third out of 13 teams that participated. However, many of the world’s best sides at that time did not take part in the tournament, which was held in Uruguay.
In a more modern sense and closer to the context in which the USMNT is playing in 2026, the group’s best finish came in 2002 during a tournament in South Korea/Japan.
After finishing second in its group, the United States advanced to the Round of 16 (first knockout stage round at that time) and won the only knockout round game in its history with a victory over rival Mexico. Landon Donovan and Brian McBride each scored a goal for the USMNT in the win.
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