The 2026 Western Conference Finals has been a grind. San Antonio pushed Oklahoma City to the wall in Game 6, winning 118-91 to force a winner-take-all, and now both teams head back to Paycom Center with everything on the line.
That ride back to Oklahoma City is actually good news for the Thunder. They went 6-1 at home during the 2026 playoffs, after going 11-2 at home during last year’s title run.
Their only home loss this entire run came in double overtime, in Game 1 of this very series. That kind of record matters a lot heading into a Game 7.
ESPN Staff Picks Thunder to Win Game 7 vs Spurs
GettyThunder Receive Another Major Boost Ahead of Winner-Take-All Game 7 vs Spurs
According to a post by NBA Base on X, ESPN’s staff picked the Oklahoma City Thunder over the San Antonio Spurs in Game 7 by a 6-3 margin.
David Dennis, Ben Golliver, Vincent Goodwill, Danny Green, Kendrick Perkins, and Marc J. Spears backed OKC, while Zach Kram, Ramona Shelburne, and Ohm Youngmisuk went with San Antonio.
Six out of nine is a clear lean, and the reasoning is not hard to find. The home team has won 117 of the 159 Game 7s in NBA playoff history. Playing at Paycom Center in a winner-take-all game is about as big an edge as you can have in basketball.
The series pattern backs that confidence up too. Oklahoma City is 3-0 when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scores at least as many points as Victor Wembanyama, while the Spurs are 3-0 when Wembanyama outscores the two-time MVP. Whoever wins that individual matchup almost certainly wins the game.
Why the Spurs Still Have a Shot in Game 7
GettyOklahoma City Thunder Get Encouraging News Before Crucial Game 7 Showdown
Three ESPN staff members still picked San Antonio, and the case is real. Wembanyama has been the better player in this series, and the Spurs have already shown they are capable of winning at Paycom Center.
The bigger concern for Oklahoma City is that Gilgeous-Alexander has not looked like himself lately, scoring only 15 points on 6-of-18 shooting in Game 6, marking his fourth consecutive game with a shooting percentage below 40 percent.
If you add the injury situation on top of that, the Spurs have plenty of reasons to believe in themselves. Ajay Mitchell, who has been sidelined since Game 3 due to a right soleus strain, still does not have an official Game 7 status.
However, the statistics as well as the panel indicate Oklahoma City. The Thunder are playing at home, they have dominated this venue during the playoffs, and Gilgeous-Alexander has a Game 7 opportunity to show the world why he is the back-to-back MVP.
San Antonio has risked more than what could have been expected of them for the whole series, but securing that road victory would be among the biggest surprises of this postseason. Game 7 will start late Saturday on NBC and Peacock.
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