Thunder Prediction Delivers $108 Million Contract to ‘Lights Out’ Defender

The 2023 NBA draft will always be known as the year the San Antonio Spurs landed center Victor Wembanyama with the No. 1 overall pick and likely changed the fortunes of their franchise for the next 2 decades.

Beyond Wemby, however, there’s quite a bit of talent that came off the board — and quite a few players about to land their 1st massive contract extensions this offseason.

Spotrac’s Keith Smith believes one of the players primed to hit the mother lode is Oklahoma City Thunder guard Cason Wallace, the No. 10 overall pick in 2023 by the Dallas Mavericks.

Smith predicts Wallace will land a 4-year, $108 million contract extension — incredible money for a player who has averaged just 7.9 points and 2.9 rebounds over the 1st 3 seasons of his career.


Cason Wallace: OKC’s Lockdown Defender

Wallace’s career numbers don’t tell the story of why he’s so valuable to the Thunder and why all 29 other NBA teams would likely line up to pay him that kind of money.

The reason Wallace is about to become so incredibly rich is that he’s the rarest of NBA commodities — a lockdown defender — and he made the NBA All-Defensive Team for the 1st time in 2026. That’s following an NBA championship with the Thunder in 2025 and earning NBA All-Rookie Team honors in 2024.

“This may be the most fascinating decision of the entire (2023 draft) group,” Smith wrote. “Wallace has been lights-out as a defender since he was drafted. His offensive game has improved, but his efficiency has fallen off as his role has grown. That could be a sign that Wallace isn’t quite ready to carry a team. The good news? He doesn’t have to with the Thunder. The combination of projecting what Wallace will eventually be, his role now and going forward in Oklahoma City, and the Thunder’s ever-swelling payroll makes this a difficult one to peg. Still, it’s best to believe Sam Presti will take care of Wallace now and figure out the rest later.”

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Trade Came 2 Weeks After 2023 NBA Draft

Wallace and Davis Bertans were traded from the Mavericks to the Thunder for center Dereck Lively, the No. 12 overall pick in 2023, just 2 weeks after the draft.

The Thunder have already exercised 2 team options on Wallace’s 4-year, $24.09 million rookie contract. In 2024, they picked up the $5.8 million option for the 2025-26 season. In 2025, they picked up the $7.42 million option for the 2026-27 season.

Oklahoma City came up just short in their title defense, falling to the Spurs in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals in a playoff run in which Wallace seemed to only solidify his ability to eventually become an elite NBA guard — if he’s not 1 already.

“In 15 games this postseason, Wallace averaged 8.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 2.6 stocks (steals plus blocks) and shot a jaw-dropping 48% from 3-point land on 4.1 attempts a night from downtown,” Yahoo Sports NBA reporter Rylan Stiles wrote on June 7. “Now, the No. 10 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft is extension eligible this offseason. With just $7.4 million owed to him in the 2026-27 season before hitting restricted free agency next summer unless the two sides come to terms on a new deal. The Thunder have rarely let players hit restricted free agency and should prioritize inking Wallace to a long-term pact this summer.”

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