The Houston Texans could opt for a reset at quarterback next offseason, in which case they would need to find a taker for C.J. Stroud in a trade.
That is where the situation could get interesting.
The Texans have experience with a similar situation, and it helped them build their current roster into what it is. They could do the same with Stroud, in hopes of taking advantage of another franchise’s thirst for an answer to their own problems.
C.J. Stroud Trade Pitch Nets Texans Temporary Replacement, Draft Capital
GettyMichael Penix Jr. could be a part of the return in a C.J. Stroud trade to the Atlanta Falcons.
SB Nation’s Jarrett Bailey predicted that the Texans would trade Stroud next offseason, adding that they will sign pending free agent Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. As for Stroud, Bailey predicted the Texans would deal him to the Atlanta Falcons.
This Heavy Sports Texans trade pitch would swap Stroud for Michael Penix Jr., who was the ninth overall pick of the 2024 draft, plus draft picks.
Stroud would get a fresh start, and the Texans would have options.
Texans get:
- Michael Penix Jr.
- 2027 first-round pick
- 2027 sixth-round pick
Falcons get:
- C.J. Stroud
“The Falcons have a really nice collection of talent on offense,” Bailey wrote on July 22. “Unfortunately, they have yet to find a quarterback who they can lean on, and that will continue to be the case in 2026 with Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix.”
The Texans could let Penix play out the final year of his contract.
They could pick up his fifth-year option like they did Stroud. Houston also has Davis Mills on an expiring contract and second-year pro Graham Mertz.
The Texans have rejected the notion of trading Stroud just this offseason. But another year of disappointment would increase the pressure on everyone and could lead to such drastic changes of heart.
Timing Key for Texans
GettyC.J. Stroud is under the microscope as training camp begins for the Houston Texans.
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell projected Stroud would be worth two first-round picks in a trade, though feedback on the Texans’ QB was mixed.
If the Texans decide to move on, it will mean Stroud’s stock has fallen.
“He has been a consistently above-average quarterback despite playing behind inconsistent offensive lines and nonexistent run games throughout his pro career so far,” Barnwell wrote on July 16. “Stroud is just the third quarterback in NFL history to win a playoff game in each of his first three pro seasons after Otto Graham and Russell Wilson.
“It’s also fair to wonder if Stroud will ever be able to meaningfully build on his rookie season, which itself was driven by an unsustainably low interception rate and an 8.2 yards per attempt figure, neither of which Stroud has come close to matching since. I still think Stroud’s more than a midlevel quarterback, but it’s unclear whether the 24-year-old really has the sort of elite-level ceiling he hinted toward as a rookie.”
Barnwell added that “Teams would still want to have Stroud on their roster, but him on a rookie deal is a very different proposition than him on a contract north of $60 million per season, especially with a couple of first-round picks going out as part of the trade package.”
He would be on his $25.9 million fifth-year option, which is still a hefty sum for a reclamation project, so the above deal sends the Texans Penix as the de facto second first-rounder.
Texans Get Conflicting Prediction
GettyC.J. Stroud can end the uncertainty around his future with the Houston Texans.
Notably, Bailey projected Stroud and the Texans would win the AFC South before saying they would trade Stroud and sign Mayfield in free agency.
However, that was due to their defensive prowess and despite Stroud.
“This one I say with hesitancy because we just don’t know what Houston will get from C.J. Stroud,” Bailey wrote, predicting an 11-6 record, which would be a step back from last year. “That defense has zero holes.”
If this prediction plays out, the likelihood of anything regarding the Falcons or Mayfield would almost certainly become moot, if it is not already.
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