The Atlanta Braves have ruled the National League East for a half dozen years and are odds-on favorites to win a seventh straight division this season.
FanDuel lists the Braves’ odds of winning the NL East at -430. The Philadelphia Phillies are the second choice at +370.
Off to a 16-6 start through April 23, the Braves hold a two-game lead over the Phillies (15-9) with the season less than a month old. It is fitting that the two teams are atop the division standings after meeting in the National League Division Series round of the playoffs each of the last two years.
The Phillies upset the Braves in four games both times. Now, one executive from an MLB team tells Heavy.com that the Phillies might be able to end the Braves’ regular-season dominance, too, despite Atlanta being big favorites.
“The Braves are awfully good but they’re vulnerable,” the exec said on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak on the subject. “There aren’t many teams who are better than the Braves anywhere in the big leagues, but the Phillies are awfully good, too. For me, the Braves and the Phillies are co-favorites at this point.”
Spencer Strider Loss Leaves Big Hole for Braves
Why does the executive believe the Braves could be toppled by the Phillies?
The biggest reason is that ace pitcher Spencer Strider is out for the season following elbow surgery. Strider went 20-5 last season when he led MLB in wins and strikeouts (281).
“There are few true No. 1 starters around the league, but Strider is one of them,” the scout said. “The Braves are going to miss him. They have some other good starting pitchers like Max Fried but nobody who can step into that ace role and match (the Phillies’) Zack Wheeler.”
Fried is 2-0 with a 4.97 ERA in five starts. However, the left-hander pitched a three-hit shutout against the Miami Marlins on April 23. He also has a 64-26 career record over eight seasons.
The Braves have lefty Chris Sale and right-handers Reynaldo Lopez and Charlie Morton in the rotation.
Atlanta Braves Searching for Fifth Starter
However, Atlanta is still trying to sort out the fifth starter.
Bryce Elder began this season at Triple-A Gwinnett despite being selected to the All-Star Game last season. He made his 2024 season debut with the Braves on April 22 and worked 6 1/3 scoreless innings against the Marlins.
However, Elder struggled in the second half of last season when he was 5-2 but had a 5.11 ERA in 13 starts. He was also tagged for six runs in 2 2/3 innings by the Phillies in Game 3 of the NLDS.
Allan Winans got the first crack at Strider’s rotation spot on April 11 but gave up seven runs in five innings to the New York Mets. Rookie Darius Vines got two starts and went 0-1 with a 4.66 ERA before being sent back to Triple-A.
“They are going to have to go find a quality starting pitcher by the trade deadline,” the exec said of the Braves. “It won’t be easy, though. They’ve traded a lot of prospects over the last few years and there isn’t much left right now in their farm system.”
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